FOOTBALL EQUALITY

Super Bowls Are Getting More Interesting

JAN. 31, 2015

Fewer Projected Blowouts

The final point spread in recent Super Bowls has been narrower than in the past.

Any football fans old enough to remember the 1980s are old enough to remember the idea that Super Bowls were lousy football games. Blowouts were the norm for much of the 1980s and 1990s, with scores like 38-9, 46-10, 55-10 and 52-17.

But blowouts are now the exception. Even after last year’s 43-8 romp by the Seahawks over the Broncos, five of the last seven — and 10 of the last 17 — Super Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less.

It’s not just based on what is happening during the games, either. Heading into the Super Bowl, the matchups have looked more competitive in recent years than in the past. Justin Wolfers has noted that this year’s game, between the Seahawks and the Patriots, is one of the few without a clear favorite according to oddsmakers (and oddsmakers have an impressive track record).

The point spread set by many bookies is 1 point, in favor of the Patriots. (Some other prediction markets list the Seahawks as a slight favorite.) Only two other Super Bowls — Dolphins-Redskins, in 1973; and 49ers-Bengals, in 1982 — have had such narrow spreads. This year’s game is also the seventh in a row with a spread of a touchdown or less.

What explains the trend? The salary cap, which began before the 1994 season, is one possibility, though the timing doesn’t fit perfectly. The N.F.L. also could have become a more efficient market (though it certainly still has its inefficiencies), with a narrower gap between the very best organizations and others. Or maybe random variation plays a role.

If you have ideas, let us know, in the comments section.