Edited by Werner D'Inka, JÜRGEN Kaube Berthold Kohler, HOLGER Steltzner
A studyBrexit would take ten years
How long would take the UK to leave the EU? A study now reckons that the whole process would take ten years. The formal withdrawal would be the smallest problem.
06/27/2015, by JULIAN TRAUTHIG
In recent weeks and months, much has been speculated about how and whether a withdrawal from the European Union or of the single currency could work. In Greece the Grexit would, therefore an exit from the Euro, more or less overnight, and after a few months, this process would be mastered at least logistically.
In Britain, the situation is somewhat different. There are many supporters of Brexits, so a complete withdrawal from the EU. The euro as their currency have never introduced the British anyway. Such a discharge would last for ten years, now expects a study by the Global Counsels before, a consulting firm that was founded by former Labour Minister and EU Trade Commissioner Lord Mandelson.
The formal withdrawal from the EU would therefore be carried out by 2019. The scenario begins in autumn this year with the approval of the British Parliament to a referendum. This could in 2017, maybe even 2016, taking place. According to Article 50 of the EU Treaty remain for exit negotiations two years, which explains why the calculated outlet time in 2019.
Swiss model takes time
Thus, the entire process would be far from over, on the contrary. Rather, it took years after that, probably until 2025 or longer until all new contracts were negotiated. On the one hand would be bilateral agreements with the EU even necessary, as it manages the Switzerland. On the other hand need all agreements with third countries with which the EU, for example, has free trade agreements, are also renegotiated.
In addition to this pure chronological sequence the much more crucial question is what economic impact would such a Brexit for the UK and the EU. The Gobal Counsel also busy and concludes that the Netherlands, Ireland and Cyprus would be most affected. Alone the geographical proximity to Ireland explains this influence quickly. In the Netherlands and Cyprus, it is mainly due to the strong trade and financial links. This hang together with the similar loose regulatory requirements in the countries. Germany would be less affected, but made quite sensitive by its high exports to the country.
More on the subject
A study by Standard & Poor'srecently came also to the conclusion that a Brexit had extensive impact on the entire European economy by the large British financial industry. The exact impact depends crucially on but, the authors note restrictive trade agreement which Britain would conclude after a Brexit.
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