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Monday, February 24, 2014

Examining Ukraine's Uncertain Future- WNYC

As Power Shifts, Examining Ukraine's Uncertain Future

Monday, February 24, 2014

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 A man prays at a memorial to the anti-government protesters killed in the past weeks clashes with riot police on Kiev's Independence Square on February 23, 2014. (YURIY DYACHYSHYN/AFP/Getty
 
Political stalemates can end very quickly, and that has certainly been the case in Ukraine.

Over the last few days a political stalemate escalated into some of the worst violence seen in Ukraine since World War II. It seemed as though the fiery, pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych had averted his own ouster with a compromise that called for new and early elections, but the nation's parliament voted to push President Yanukovych out of office hours after he fled the capital and denounced events in the country.

He is now wanted for the deaths of protesters and civilians that came as a result of a government crack down on street demonstrations in Kiev over the past week. Reporter Andriy Kulykov has been broadcasting to the world over his improvised and largely digital network known as Ukraine Public Radio. He joins The Takeaway to explain what is happening on the street.

"It seems that no one is quite sure who is running the show," says Kulykov.

On the surface, Kulykov says it is the opposition that seems to have the upper hand, pointing to individuals like Oleksandr Turchinov, who was elected chairman of the Parliament and is now serving as acting president. While some in the nation are calling it a coup d'etat, Kulykov says that the activity of many ordinary people has flared up on both sides.

"Those who oppose the old regime are taking arms in their hands or are at least forming some detachments that try to keep order in many, many cities throughout Ukraine," says Kulykov. "On the other hand, in Eastern and Southern regions, opponents are forming the same kind of neighborhood watch."

Kulykov says he has witnessed clashes between those that oppose the old regime and are in favor of Viktor Yanukovych—or at least against the opposition.

Oleh Rybachuk is now a civic activist that served as a former member of Parliament before the Orange Revolution, a former Deputy Prime Minister that under Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and a former chief of staff to President Viktor Yushchenko. He says this is a new era for Ukraine, and has some harsh words for Yanukovych.

"Nowadays, [Yanukovych] is in big, big trouble," says Rybachuk. "He is a criminal, and he is the first Ukrainian president who gave shooting orders to police—there are documents confirming this."
Rybachuk believes Yanukovych should be referred to the International Court for crimes against humanity. He adds that while Ukrainians are very happy that Yulia Tymoshenko is out of prison, they aren't ready to rally behind her.

"I don't think Ukrainians think their future should be tied to a politician like Tymoshenko," says Rybachuk. "There will be an intermediate government, which we actually have. What we have now, we have a date of the next presidential elections—May 25—and I'm pretty sure that after that, the nation would demand new elections of parliamentarians."

Rybachuk says that Ukrainians are having a transitional period that will take a few months, but believes the political scenery will be completely different within the next year.

"The whole system should be reset," he adds. "People are very determined to demand that."

Regina Smyth is an expert on Russia and associate professor of Political Science at Indiana University. Nicolai Petro is a political science professor at the University of Rhode Island and is in Ukraine's third largest city, Odessa, for a Fulbright Scholarship. Together they explain the divisions in the nation and how the Ukraine might move forward during this uncertain time.

"It's very uncertain—the protest movement itself is very divided, the country is divided, and it's in economic shambles," says Smyth. "We're really in a moment of tremendous uncertainty."

Petro adds that inside Ukraine, the new government will have to tread lightly.

"One thing they should avoid doing is dividing the country, and unfortunately some of the first steps they've take have been in the opposite direction of what needs to be done," says Petro.

Petro says that a law that allows Russian to be used locally has been repealed—a main irritant in East-West relations within the Ukraine. Additionally, Petro says a resolution was introduced to outlaw the Communist Party of Ukraine, which is popular in the East and the South, and one of the only remaining opposition parties.

"Right now the Parliament can do whatever it wants because it has no representatives from the major party," says Petro. "Most of the deputies from the East and the South are simply afraid to step foot in the Parliament. They have to really make an effort to reach out or rule by themselves, which will leave a lot of people upset."

According to Smyth, these divisions come out of Soviet Era policies that fostered ethnic differences. 
"I think the most important and most pressing problem is that Ukraine is about to go into default," says Smyth. "If the government can find some way to stave off default and put the country on more positive economic footing that might go a long way to heal grievances."

In addition to mending economic troubles, Smyth says that the government should establish some sort of power sharing structure to help the nation move forward.

Listen to the full interview for deeper analysis and commentary.

Guests:

Andriy Kulykov, Nicolai Petro, Oleh Rybachuk and Regina Smyth

Produced by:

Jen Poyant and Mythili Rao

Editors:

T.J. Raphael

Comments [1]

Larry Fisher from Brooklyn, N.Y.
Yanukovych is heading for Sochi to hide out at the desolate Olympic Village. The Russians will turn Sochi into a Gulag and Yanukovych will be asked to run things further into the ground.
Feb. 24 2014 11:41 AM
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