This is Why Solar Panels Will Boom Early Next Year
But the forecasts aren’t completely sunny in 2016. Here’s why.
The global market for solar panels is expected to soar to a record high in the first half of 2016 because of strong demand as well as favorable policies in the U.S. and China, says a new report from research firm IHS Technology.
However, in the second half of 2016 and into 2017, growth is expected to slow after the U.S. lowers its solar tax credits and a push by China to install more panels ends.
IHS says that manufacturers will produce 16.82 gigawatts of solar panels in the first quarter next year followed by another 17.73 gigawatts in the second quarter. One gigawatt is nearly the equivalent energy produced by a large gas or nuclear plant.
That means that manufacturers will produce almost 35 gigawatts of solar panels in the first half of 2016. That number is huge, particularly compared to the amount of solar panels worldwide. In the U.S., 22.7 gigawatts of solar panels are currently in operation.
The expected increase in the first half of 2016 is also a significant jump from this year. In the first quarter of 2015, manufacturers produced 12.76 gigawatts of solar panels, and another 15.14 gigawatts in the second quarter of 2015.
Part of the reason why the global market for solar panels is set to boom in the first half of next year is because policies in the U.S. and China encouraging it. But they the incentives will slow down in the second half of 2016 and into 2017.
At the end of 2016, the U.S. will reduce an important 30% tax credit for customers to 10%. As a result, solar sales, particularly to utilities, are expected to slow in 2017. Furthermore, U.S. solar installers like SolarCity SCTY 3.11% are expecting a difficult year in 2017. But before the slow down, utilities and companies are rushing to take advantage of the tax credit before it is cut.
Likewise, IHS says that China recently announced a big new quota for solar panel installations, and many of those panels will be connected by the summer of 2016 to receive government incentives. But following that solar push, China’s market will likely slow in the second half of 2016, says IHS.
The solar panel market is relatively new and still relies on incentives in many countries. As the industry matures and relies less on government subsidies, the boom and bust cycles may be less pronounced.
Overall, the market for solar panels is expected to continue to grow globally beyond 2017. As the cost of installing and making solar panels continues to drop, the technology will increasingly be more attractive to customers as an alternative to fossil fuel-based energy.
To learn more about solar watch this Fortune video:
Japan Is Back In Recession Again
Japan joins the Eurozone in feeling the chill from China.
Japan has fallen back into recession, after the economy contracted by an annualized 0.8% in the three months to September.
The news was worse than expected but not a complete surprise: economists had predicted an annualized decline in gross domestic product of 0.4%. But it is more evidence of how the world economy lost momentum during the summer under the influence of the slowdown in China and other emerging markets. It comes only a week after the Eurozone also reported slower growth during the summer quarter.
In year-on-year terms, gross domestic product growth was unchanged from the previous quarter at 1%.
It’s the fourth time in the last five years that the world’s third-largest economy has registered successive quarters of falling gross domestic product, the technical definition of recession. The latest one comes despite one of the biggest monetary stimulus programs in history by the Bank of Japan, and adds to fears that loose central bank policy, on which western nations have bet so heavily since the 2008 and ensuing Great Recession, has succumbed to the law of diminishing returns.
The economy had initially reacted positively to the BoJ’s stimulus policy in 2013, one of three “arrows” of “Abenomics” the strategy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for ending two decades of deflation. The yen had initially fallen 20%, boosting exports and business sentiment. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda doubled down on that bet last year as the economy weakened in the wake of a big rise in taxes, but the yen barely reacted the second time around, and Kuroda pointedly refused to add to the current asset purchases of 80 trillion yen ($65 billion) a month last month as evidence of the slowdown increased.
With its large export sector, Japan is inevitably exposed to developments in its biggest trading partners. There was more bad news on that score Monday when a survey of Asian business leaders showed confidence at its lowest level since 2012. According to a survey of Asian CEOs by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, only 28% were “very confident” of an increase in revenue over the next 12 months, down from 46% last year. The proportion of those who were “not very confident” rose to 27% from 8%.
X Prize Creator Peter Diamandis Launches VC fund
Bold Capital Partners will invest in “exponential transformation.”
Peter Diamandis, chairman and CEO of the X Prize Foundation, is raising $200 million for a new venture capital fund, according to a regulatory filing.
The effort is called Bold Capital Partners, and has not yet closed on any commitments. In addition to Diamandis, the fund’s partners include: Monitor Ventures co-founders Neal Bhadkamkar and Teymour Boutros-Ghali; and Emilio Barroso, founder and co-chairman of NALA Investments.
Bold Capital Partners, which is references on Diamandis’ website without further information, and it shares a Culver City, Calif. mailing address with the X Prize Foundation. Bold Capital Partners also has a website that says it “investing in exponential transformation,” but everything else is password-protected.
Fortune has reached out to Diamandis and Bhadkamkar, and will update this post if we hear back.
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World Leaders Focus on ISIS at the G20 Summit
The summit convened just days after the attacks in Paris.
Various world leaders met this weekend at the G20 summit in Turkey. The two-day summit is generally a time to discuss economics, but as it convened just two days following the terrorist attacks in Paris, it became an opportunity to discuss the evolving global threat that is the Islamic State.
Obama declared that he would increase efforts towards eradicating ISIS to prevent more attacks similar to the one that occurred in Paris on Friday, Reuters reports: “The United States and its allies will redouble efforts to find a peaceful solution in Syria and prevent Islamic State militants from perpetrating attacks like those in Paris.”
Reuters writes that U.S. officials are expecting France to up its involvement in the U.S.-led coalition’s bombing campaign against the Islamic State. Obama is taking this opportunity to attempt to encourage other European and Middle Eastern powers to do the same.
Russia began air strikes in Syria nearly two months ago, but has been aiding president Bashar al-Assad, whom Turkey and western allies do not support, by targeting his moderate Syrian opposition. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, has urged Vladimir Putin to shift Russia’s military efforts to focus on ISIS.
According to a draft communique, as seen by Reuters, leaders at the summit are expected to agree that the migrant crisis is a global problem and they need to coordinate a way to tackle it. The draft is due to be published on Monday, but has yet to be accepted by all the G20 leaders, specifically China, India, and Russia.
Here's What You Should Know About the Paris Attacks
This is what we know so far.
Paris was targeted in a series of terror attacks spanning the city on Friday night when a France-Germany soccer game ensured a large crowd. At least 132 people have been killed, and French president François Hollande has officially declared a state of emergency. News sites are milling out the facts as they come, and social media is saturated with moral support for the country. Here’s what we know so far.
The attackers were Islamic State militants. Following the attacks, ISIS released a statement claiming responsibility. The group sent in eight fighters with suicide bombing belts and machine guns to “Let France and all nations following its path know that they will continue to be at the top of the target list for the Islamic State and that the smell of death will not leave their nostrils as long as they partake in the crusader campaign.” The New York Times reports that three of the attackers were brothers. One died during the attacks, and another was detained in Brussels on Saturday. French authorities are currently searching for the third brother, Abdeslam Salah. They have released his photo to the public but warn that he’s dangerous, and say that, if they spot him, civilians should not intervene on their own “under any circumstances.”
Refugees are now in crisis more than ever. It has been reported that at least one of the attackers smuggled into Paris with refugees. Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush appeared on State of the Union with Jake Tapper this morning to discuss the evolving concern of terrorism. He echoed multiple other candidates in saying that we need to eradicate ISIS, adding that we have to be very careful when taking in refugees. He advocates more thorough screening and limiting the number that we accept in order to prevent national crises both in the U.S. as well as in other countries. He asserted, “This is a warning for our country that this threat is not going to go away. This is a threat against western civilization, and we need to lead.” ISIS claims that these attacks are the “first of the storm.”
The European economy could see a change. Despite the EU’s proud achievement of eliminating internal borders, the migrant crisis has encouraged some countries to reinstate border checks. As Fortune reports, it’s likely that after these attacks more countries will follow and, if they do, it will have an adverse effect on cross-border trade and the trucking industry. Some may also lose confidence in European businesses as it may seem like the continent is in a state of unraveling.
Paris is not the only city that ISIS attacked this week. The warm wave of support on social media has sparked others to remind Facebook friends and Twitter followers that this is not the only attack. Just one day earlier, ISIS took credit for a double suicide bombing in Beirut, Lebanon that claimed the lives of at least 43 people and injured hundreds more. The New York Times describes it as “the worst attack to strike the city in years.” ISIS currently controls parts of Syria, which shares borders with Lebanon. ISIS declared that it had targeted Shiite Muslims, whom the group believes are apostates because they do not share the same extremist views. The targeted neighborhood housed both Palestinian and Syrian refugees.
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