Survey reveals majority of voters want coalition, have dim view of snap election

Turkish woman Guliz Delikoc casts her vote at a polling station in a primary school in Ankara on June 7, 2015. (Photo: AP)

July 08, 2015, Wednesday/ 18:07:17/ İPEK ÜZÜM / ISTANBUL

A recent survey conducted by the Gezici Research Company has revealed that the majority of voters want a coalition government to rule the country instead of a majority government, with 58.8 percent of voters further saying that they support a coalition because they believe it will create a positive atmosphere in the country.

The Gezici survey – conducted on 4,860 people from 36 provinces across Turkey between July 4 and 5 -- revealed that 65.1 percent of voters want a coalition government to be established, while 34.9 percent are against the establishment of a coalition government.

No single party was able to obtain the 276 seats required to form a majority in Parliament in the June 7 general election. Receiving 40.9 percent of the vote, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since it came to power in 2002, forcing the party to seek a coalition with opposition parties or form a minority government alone.

Gezici Research Company Chairman Murat Gezici told Today's Zaman support for a coalition government was 53.6 percent in a survey conducted ahead of the June 7 parliamentary election, but increased to 65.1 percent in this recent survey. Gezici said any political party that wants to go to a snap election by refusing to establish a coalition will mostly likely be defeated in that election.

Then-AK Party chairman and current President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who still wants to dominate politics despite becoming president in an election last year, does not want a coalition or minority government to be formed, preferring a snap election instead because he believes the AK Party will regain its parliamentary majority in a snap election.

Speaking during an iftar (fast-breaking) dinner on July 3, Erdoğan said he does not think a minority government would address Turkey's "serious" problems, raising the prospect of a snap election. “The nation expressed its decision on June 7. If a government does not emerge from this picture, the solution is again the nation. If Parliament cannot solve this, the nation will. Nobody should hesitate to go to the polls," Erdoğan said.

However, the survey reveals that 64 percent of AK Party voters support the establishment of a coalition. Moreover, 74 percent of voters believe Erdoğan and interim Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu should intensify their efforts to establish a coalition government instead of calling for a snap election.

The survey also reveals that 58.8 percent of respondents believe Turkey will be normalized and its economic problems will be solved if a coalition government is formed, while 41.2 percent believe a coalition government will bring more trouble for the country. The survey also found that 63 percent of voters believe a possible majority government ruled by the AK Party will bring a negative atmosphere to the country.

No major difference seen between results of June 7 election and possible snap poll

Examining if there would be a change in people's support for the political parties, the Gezici survey found there would be no major difference in the results if an early election is held. When asked which party they would vote for if a general election were to be held this Sunday, 40.1 percent of respondents chose the AK Party, while 26.1 percent said they would vote for the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). A total of 14.7 percent would vote for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and 14.2 percent would vote for the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). The percentage of those who would vote for other parties is 4.9 percent.

According to the official results of the June 7 general election, the AK Party received 40.87 percent of the vote, while the CHP came in second with 24.95 percent. Even though they received the same number of seats in Parliament, the MHP won 16.29 percent of the vote, while support for the HDP stood at 13.12 percent.

The survey clearly shows a fall in support for the MHP, which Gezici attributes to the stance taken by the party during the election of the parliament speaker last week. By casting blank ballots in the final round of voting in the election last Wednesday, the MHP paved the way for the victory of AK Party candidate İsmet Yılmaz, attracting strong reactions both from its own voter base and the other opposition parties.

Yılmaz received 258 votes out of a total of 547. His only rival, Deniz Baykal of the CHP, garnered 182 votes, apparently receiving support from both the CHP and about 50 deputies of the HDP. The CHP has 132 seats in Parliament, while the HDP has 80. MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli announced earlier last Wednesday -- when the last round of voting was held -- that MHP deputies would cast blank ballots in the final round of voting -- which they later did -- unless the MHP candidate appeared in the final round.

Commenting on the issue, Gezici said if the MHP had supported Baykal in the election, its support would not have fallen, further revealing that of those MHP voters who said they would not cast their ballots for the MHP in the next election, 60 percent would vote for the AK Party while 40 percent would pick the CHP.

65 percent against presidential system sought by Erdoğan

When asked if they support a presidential system that Erdoğan wants in place of the current parliamentary system, 65.2 percent of respondents are against this system, while 34.8 percent are in support of it.

Erdoğan is advocating a presidential system that will give strong powers to the president and had asked supporters to vote to elect at least 400 AK Party deputies to the 550-seat Parliament in the June 7 election. Such a majority would enable the introduction of a presidential system through an amendment to the Constitution. However, the fact that the AK Party failed to even hold on to its majority in Parliament dealt a blow to Erdoğan's ambitions for a presidential system.

The survey also found that voters believe Erdoğan negatively affected the AK Party's election campaign by holding successive rallies ahead of the June 7 election as though he was the prime minister. Accordingly, 66.5 percent of respondents say they do not approve of the rallies held by Erdoğan before the election, while just 27.3 percent were in favor of Erdoğan's rallies. The remaining 6.2 percent were ambivalent on the issue.

The opposition had voiced criticism over Erdoğan's rallies ahead of the election, saying the president had openly violated Article 103 of the Constitution, which includes the president's oath and clearly states the president must assure the public he will remain impartial while performing his duties.

Majority of Turks against Turkey's Syria incursion

The Gezici Research Company survey has also revealed that the vast majority of Turkish voters are against a possible cross-border operation into Syria to be conducted by the Turkish military to combat security threats.

According to the survey, 91.4 percent of respondents said they don't want the Turkish military to be involved in any operation in Syria, while just 8.6 percent said a military intervention should take place. The survey also revealed that 70 percent of respondents believe the interim AK Party government will start a war with Syria.

Reports recently emerged that the government has been considering engaging the Turkish military in the fight against the brutal Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants beyond its Syrian border.

Wary of advances by both Syrian Kurdish forces and ISIL in northern Syria, Turkey has sent extra troops and equipment to strengthen parts of its 900-kilometer (560-mile) border as the risk of spillover increases.

Ankara is considering the creation of a “secure zone” on Syrian soil to prevent a new wave of refugees from crossing the border, a strategy which will likely require a military incursion, but has made clear that it will not act unilaterally and has therefore been lobbying for support from the US-led coalition against ISIL.

Over 80 pct of people don't believe Turkey needs new party

A survey conducted by the MetroPOLL Strategic and Social Research Center in June has revealed that the vast majority of citizens in Turkey don't feel there is a need to establish a new party.

According to the survey, 82 percent of the respondents said they don't want a new party to be established, while 12.3 percent believe Turkey needs a new party that can rule the country. Those who responded that they were indecisive constituted 5.7 percent of the respondents.

The survey, titled “Pulse of Turkey June 2015 Research,” also revealed that the percentage of those who believe a new party is needed has decreased in the last few years. This percentage was 47.0 percent in September 2012, but it decreased to 41.7 percent in June 2013, 27.0 percent in June 2014 and 12.3 in June 2015.

Keywords: Gezici survey , AK Party , coalition