Tammy Duckworth Expected to Challenge Senator Mark Kirk in Illinois

Representative Tammy L. Duckworth, Democrat of Illinois, is expected to announce next week that she will challenge Senator Mark S. Kirk, a first-term Republican, potentially pitting two candidates with personal stories of overcoming physical handicaps against each other in 2016 in a race for President Obama’s old seat.
Ms. Duckworth will make the announcement on Monday and begin a fund-raising push in Chicago, according to Democratic officials.
Mr. Kirk, 55, a centrist Republican who won the seat in 2010, suffered a stroke two years laterthat impaired his speech and movement on the left side of his body. After a long rehabilitation, Mr. Kirk returned to work, sometimes using a cane or a wheelchair.
Last year, Mr. Kirk said that he had no plans to retire, and that his condition might make him less “demonizable” as a Republican. He has angered some in his party by voting to confirm President Obama’s surgeon general nominee, a supporter of gun control, and by backing off in the fight to deny funding to the Department of Homeland Security over the president’s immigration actions.
Ms. Duckworth, 47, is a military veteran who lost her legs when her helicopter was shot down in Iraq. She drew national attention last year when the House Democratic leadership would not allow her to vote by proxy in committee member elections, even though her doctor had recommended that she not to travel to Washington during the late stages of her pregnancy.
“Her personal story is very compelling, but her legislative record, given the circumstances in Congress, is somewhat limited,” said Dick Simpson, a political scientist at the University of Illinois, Chicago. “It won’t be easy for her to show that she’s the only one among the congressional candidates who is a reasonable choice.”
Ms. Duckworth’s announcement could give her a fund-raising advantage, but she is likely to face competition for the Democratic nomination.

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G.O.P. Hawks Upset With Bush After Baker Speech on Israel

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Former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, in 2013.Credit Andrew Testa for The New York Times
The warnings trickled in soon after an announcement began circulating last month that James A. Baker III, the former diplomat who is now a foreign policy adviser to Jeb Bush, would be a featured speaker at a conference hosted by J Street, the liberal pro-Israel advocacy organization.
It could be problematic, conservative donors and Israel hawks told Mr. Bush’s team, if Mr. Baker spoke at the event, according to three people briefed on the discussions.
But Mr. Bush’s team ultimately concluded that Mr. Baker, a former secretary of state and a longtime Bush family friend, was not someone they could pressure. And in the days since Mr. Baker’s speech — in which he criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel for failing to work harder for Mideast peace — the criticism from Republicans has only intensified.
The perceived breach presents a new and potentially significant obstacle for Mr. Bush as he seeks to lock up prohibitive support of the Republican donor class for his presidential campaign.
Sheldon Adelson, the billionaire casino mogul and a powerful donor to Republican “super PACs,” is among those who have expressed concerns to Mr. Bush’s friends and allies, several of them said. Mr. Adelson is said to be incensed over Mr. Baker’s comments and the lack of pressure put on him by the Bush team before his address — a significant concern, given that Mr. Adelson has the resources to pour tens of millions of dollars into the Republican presidential primary.
But the flare-up could thrust Mr. Bush into conflict with some of the most hawkish voices in his party, including some leading Republican donors, and a constituency determined to demonstrate its strength in the primary.
“A few months ago, people I speak to thought Jeb Bush was the guy. That’s changed,” said Morton A. Klein, president of the Zionist Organization of America, a conservative pro-Israel organization.
Mr. Bush has responded to the criticism carefully. His spokesman issued statements criticizing J Street ahead of the speech. On Wednesday, after the speech, Mr. Bush wrote an opinion article for the National Review criticizing President Obama’s handling of nuclear talks with Iran. But he declined to disavow Mr. Baker even as he described the J Street appearance, in a television interview, as not “appropriate.”
A spokesman for Mr. Adelson did not respond to requests for comment.
Kristy Campbell, a spokeswoman for Mr. Bush, said in an email in response to questions about the lingering concerns that the likely candidate “publicly and privately has expressed that he has a great deal of respect for Secretary Baker and his accomplishments, but he thinks J Street is wrong and their actions undermine the safety and security of our close ally, Israel.”
She added that he consults with a number of foreign policy advisers and said, “Governor Bush’s support for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu is unwavering, and he believes it’s critically important our two nations work seamlessly to achieve peace in the region.”
The tension has created awkwardness for some longtime Bush allies who are also active in pro-Israel groups like the Republican Jewish Coalition, which is principally funded by Mr. Adelson. In interviews or e-mails, several played down the disagreements, echoing the fledgling Bush campaign’s argument that Mr. Baker is an accomplished statesman and only one of a dozen foreign policy advisers to Mr. Bush.

First Draft Focus: The Week in Political Pictures

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Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada, in his Washington office on Thursday, the day before announcing he won’t seek re-election in 2016.
 Gabriella Demczuk for The New York Times

Schumer Shores Up Support for Replacing Reid as Party Leader

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Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York.Credit Drew Angerer for The New York Times
The official vote to replace Senator Harry Reid as Democratic leader is still nearly two years away, but that hasn’t stopped Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, now the chamber’s No. 3 Democrat, from making his move.
On Friday, just hours after Mr. Reid announced his plans to retire in 2016, Mr. Schumer announced plans to seek the leadership post.
“I thank Harry Reid for his friendship, counsel and steadfast leadership of our caucus over the last 10 years, and I look forward to continuing to work right alongside him for the remainder of this Congress,” Mr. Schumer said in a statement. “I am honored and humbled to have the support of so many of my colleagues and look forward to our Senate Democratic caucus continuing to fight for the middle class.”
Mr. Schumer moves ahead with the explicit blessing of Mr. Reid, who endorsed Mr. Schumer as his successor. When Mr. Reid told Mr. Schumer on Thursday night of his plans to retire, he urged Mr. Schumer to begin calling lawmakers on Friday to shore up support for his leadership bid, said a person close to Mr. Schumer, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.
Mr. Schumer spent most of Friday talking with colleagues, and he received a number of supportive calls from fellow Democrats urging him to run. By the middle of the day, Mr. Schumer had commitments of support from “an overwhelming majority of the caucus to be leader,” the person said.
Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat who is technically next in line to replace Mr. Reid, told Mr. Schumer late Thursday evening that he did not plan to run for leader and would support Mr. Schumer, the person close the Mr. Schumer added.
Mr. Durbin also spent the morning talking to senators about his desire to remain the Democratic whip. Mr. Reid also said he supports Mr. Durbin’s decision to again seek the No. 2 post.

Obama Praises Harry Reid in Call to Radio Station

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President Barack Obama on Capital Hill with Senator Harry Reid in 2013.Credit Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
Fresh on the heels of Senator Harry Reid’s retirement announcement, President Obama took a few minutes on Friday to call into Nevada’s National Public Radio station during an interview with Mr. Reid.
“He’s been one of my best partners and best friends, and I’m really honored to have served with him,” Mr. Obama said of Mr. Reid, adding that the Democratic leader in the Senate has done more for his state than anyone in that chamber.
The president — who has sometimes struggled with intraparty conflicts during his time in office — praised Mr. Reid’s work in corralling Senate Democrats over the years, noting that, “Harry is unique and he’s got that curmudgeonly charm that is hard to replace.”
But Mr. Obama added that it might be time for Mr. Reid to step aside.
“Harry understands is the same thing that I understand and that our Founding Fathers understood, which is the system works better when over time some new blood comes in,” Mr. Obama said.
At the White House, officials declined to react to the news that Mr. Reid endorsed Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York take over leadership of the Democratic Party in the Senate.
“The president does not intend to endorse either man in what may be a contested race for the Senate leadership that will occur almost two years from now,” Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary said. “So at this point, we are certainly looking forward to Senator Reid, the current leader of the Senate Democrats, as the president makes the most of his remaining time in office.”
On the radio, Mr. Obama simply said to Mr. Reid: “Harry, get back to work soon.”

Harry Reid Endorses Chuck Schumer as Next Minority Leader

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Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, right, with Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, spoke to reporters last week on Capitol Hill.Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times
Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader, shocked his colleagues Friday morning by announcing that he would retire at the end of his term.
And then, hours later, he sent another ripple through the Democratic political world when he endorsed Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, the No. 3 Democrat, to replace him.
“I think Schumer should be able to succeed me,” Mr. Reid told The Washington Post, in an interview at his condo in Washington’s West End.
In throwing his support behind Mr. Schumer, Mr. Reid conspicuously passed over Senator Richard J. Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat from Illinois, who is also in line to replace Mr. Reid.
“It’s the caucus’ decision but Senator Reid thinks Senator Schumer has earned it,” said Adam Jentleson, a Reid spokesman.
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Cruz Is a Great Debater, but Not a Perfect One

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Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, before a televised political debate in Dallas in 2012.Credit Pool photo/LM Otero
He’s known as the Republican field’s great debater, but Senator Ted Cruz — a former Princeton debate champion — is not entirely undefeated.
As a Harvard Law student in 1995, Mr. Cruz and his debate partner, David Panton, were ousted in the semifinals of the World Debate Championships by two students from University of New South Wales.
First Draft caught up one of the competitors at the event who said Mr. Cruz’s debate downfall came when he was unable to successfully argue that the United Nations should not be able to intervene during genocide. The judges awarded his team no points out of five.
“All you had to do was defend the status quo, but they spent most of the time complaining about the task,” said a fellow debater who was in attendance but asked not to be named discussing a presidential candidate.
Despite the defeat, Mr. Cruz made an impression, the attendee said. Some wondered why a law student had come back to compete in an event that was geared toward college students, and people mused that Mr. Cruz was likely to become a Supreme Court justice someday.
“Ted was obviously very articulate, very polite and had a little bit of an evangelical tone to him,” he said, noting that he was a good sport about the loss and chatted about politics over drinks afterward.
The pair that won that day went on to become investors in New York. Mr. Cruz is looking forward to more debates, on a bigger stage.

Jeb Bush Aides Consider Data-Selling Plan

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Jeb Bush at an event in January.Credit Max Whittaker for The New York Times
Aides to Jeb Bush are considering an ambitious data-selling system that would exist for his eventual presidential campaign and outside groups supporting it, three people briefed on the plan confirmed.
The concept is similar to the Data Trust established by the Republican National Committee and appears to be the first of its kind in a presidential campaign: an entity that will be specific to one candidate, as opposed to a pool of approved candidates or similar-minded groups.
The basic idea involves allies of the former Florida governor using an existing, for-profit entity to sell data to his eventual campaign and the political action committee and “super PAC” that will support his candidacy, the people privy to the plan said.
The data that would be for sale could take different forms, but could potentially include information like an enhanced voter file and raw polling information.
The ability to buy the same appended voter information could increase the efficiency of the super PAC and the campaign to target voters in a parallel way, without breaking laws about coordination between campaigns and outside groups. The entity could, in theory, eventually sell information to the Republican National Committee or other Republican committees if Mr. Bush is the nominee.
A spokeswoman for Mr. Bush, Kristy Campbell, would say only that he “is not a candidate and has not made a decision to move forward with a potential campaign, so this speculation is premature.”
But the plan has been discussed in Mr. Bush’s circle and with potential supporters over the last few weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Such a move would highlight Mr. Bush’s technical savvy and would also address a potential problem that arose during Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, when his team was sometimes at odds with groups supporting it in terms of messaging and targeting voters.

Harry Reid to Retire From Senate When His Term Is Up

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Senator Harry Reid, second from right, the year he became leader of Senate Democrats in 2005. Also pictured, from left to right, are Senators Byron Dorgan, Chuck Schumer, Debbie Stabenow, and Dick Durbin, far right. Senator Schumer is considered the favorite to succeed Mr. Reid as party leader.Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times
Harry Reid to Retire From Senate in 2016

Harry Reid to Retire From Senate in 2016

The senator from Nevada, a tactician who has led Senate Democrats since 2005, said he had been contemplating retiring for months.

Today in Politics: Marathon Vote a Challenge for Senators Thinking About 2016

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Sheets with vote tallies on a table in the Senate Press Gallery at the Capitol in Washington on Thursday.CreditGabriella Demczuk for The New York Times
Good Friday morning from Washington. Jeb Bush’s aides are mulling a new data strategy, while Hillary Rodham Clinton is building up her communications team. Ending a week that included the first presidential announcement, we reminisce about Ted Cruz’s old debate days. Meanwhile, members of Congress will most likely start the weekend groggy from a marathon “vote-orama.” Finally, Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada,says he will not seek re-election in 2016.
Senate Republicans squeezed through their budget early Friday morning and put some pressure on a few members who might prefer to be on the trail rather than casting dicey votes.
Thursday’s “vote-orama” stretched well into the wee hours and provided lawmakers with the chance to highlight their pet issues and peeves — as well as jam the other party with (nonbinding) votes that could still come back to haunt them.
It also proved to be a rough day for some likely 2016 Republican hopefuls, who saw their amendments resoundingly defeated.
Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, found himself bruised after only four senators (himself included) voted for his amendment to increase military spending by roughly $190 billion over the next two years. Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader; Michael B. Enzi of Wyoming, the Budget Committee chairman; and David Vitter of Louisiana also supported the amendment.
Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, also joined with Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, to offer another military spending amendment, which would have increased it to $697 billion next year. His amendment was defeated, 32 to 68.
As lawmakers calculated the smartest way to vote, Senator Harry Reid just wanted to go home. Suggesting to his colleagues that their votes would have little impact on their electoral fortunes, he offered to buy dinner if they could wrap things up at a reasonable hour.
“The agreement for dinner was not a Las Vegas bet,” he said. “It’s something I’ll do.”
Alas, they finished too late anyway.
– Ashley Parker

Stay tuned throughout the day @NYTpolitics for First Draft updates

Bulletins: Walker Denies, Clinton Hires, Schock Says Goodbye

Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a possible candidate for president in 2016,told a private gathering of New Hampshire Republicans this month that he supported a pathway to legal status — but not citizenship — for immigrants living illegally in the United States, according to the chairwoman of the state’s Republican Party.
No other potential presidential candidate has a campaign operation the size of the one Hillary Rodham Clinton has built before the 2016 race, with outside groups, consultants and political staff members already working to support her soon-to-be-announced bid. And Mrs. Clinton continues to add staff members, recently hiring Adrienne Elrod — the latest in a series of well-respected operatives familiar to the political press corps — to join her communications team.
Representative Aaron Schock of Illinois, who resigned last week amid questions over improper spendinggave his final speech to Congress and said: “I was never more excited than the day I walked into this chamber six years ago. I leave here with sadness and humility.”

What We’re Watching Today

President Obama is meeting with his science and technology advisers in the morning and with Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew in the afternoon.
Dr. Margaret Hamburg, the departing commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, will discuss health policy at the National Press Club.
The Commerce Department releases fourth-quarter economic growth figures at 8:30 a.m.

Our Favorites From Today’s Times

The House approved sweeping changes to Medicare in a rare bipartisan vote.
Federal investigators are pressuring a close friend of Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey to cooperate in their inquiry.
Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl’s desertion charge also comes with a rare charge of “misbehavior before the enemy.”

What We’re Reading Elsewhere

Alfred J. Tuchfarber borrows Larry Sabato’s crystal ball and looks at the political and demographic challenges facing Republicans and Democrats in 2016.
Politico reports that Ron Paul supporters are bolting from the camp ofSenator Rand Paul of Kentucky.
The Economist calls Senator Ted Cruz of Texas “dangerous.”
Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post explains why it’s not smart forpoliticians to say they don’t read The New York Times.
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