United States: the Fed made a further step towards a rate hike

Publié17-03-2015 at 10:51 p.m.Updated 19-03-2015 at 3:16

The front of the headquarters of the Federal Reserve in Washington in 2008 (c) AFP

WASHINGTON ( AFP ) - The central bank US (Fed) has made another step Wednesday to an early normalization of its political money by abandoning its commitment to show "patient" before raising interest rates.

At the end of two-day meeting in Washington , the Monetary Committee of the Federal Reserve (FOMC) certainly has once again confirmed the continuation of its policy rates close to zero level since late 2008, to continue to support recovery.

But the Fed has, however, been innovative in semantics to send a signal to markets suspended its decision. His final statement is no longer any reference to "patience" that she had invoked during its last two meetings to warrant a monetary status quo.

In its statement, the FOMC now specifies that an increase at its next meeting in April "remains unlikely", but leaving open the debate on its exact timing.

In late February, the institution of the President, Janet Yellen warned that a change in the monetary stance message does not mean "necessarily" that rates would be raised at the next meeting of the Fed.

The US central bank still wants to leave some room for maneuver in the event that the US economy to show sudden bout of weakness or its objectives of full employment and annual inflation at 2% were out of reach.

In its statement, adopted unanimously, and the Fed indicates that it will be "appropriate" to raise rates only when she sees "further improvements" on the employment front and when it is "reasonably confident" the fact that inflation back towards its goal of 2% annual.

Experts and scholars from the US Federal Reserve should therefore continue to speculate on the date of the first rate hike (in June or September), which will announce the beginning of the end of the era of "cheap money" and could cause a new appreciation of the dollar against the euro.

- Falling Inflation -

In support of this status quo, the Fed advanced a few points of weakness in the US economy. If it notes that the conditions of the labor market continues to improve, the bank unit detects that economic growth in the country was "somewhat" moderate.

In the fourth quarter 2014, the increase in the US gross domestic product slowed to 2.2% annualized.

Recent indidicateurs, especially in real estate, also seem to suggest that the harsh winter has again seized the activity in one part of the country.

In its statement, the FOMC also noted that inflation has "further declined" leaded by the world price decline of oil, further away from the long-term goal of the Fed.

In January, consumer prices in the United States grew by only 0.2% year on year.

Reflecting its renewed prudence, Fed Wednesday lowered its forecast for growth as of inflation in the United States while being more optimistic on the employment front.

The gross domestic product ( GDP ) should not increase by only 2.3% to 2.7% year on year in the fourth quarter 2015, marking a decline from 2.6% to 3.0% forecast in December according to the new quarterly projections of the FOMC.

Another cause for concern, the consumer price should no longer increase by only 0.6 to 0.8% this year, against a range of 1.0 to 1.6% expected so far.

In 2015, the unemployment rate should move between 5.0 and 5.2%, while a range from 5.2% to 5.3% was previously expected, according to these new projections.