Early election only possibility, PM says, as coalition talks fail

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (2nd R) meets with main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (2nd L) during a meeting as part of their coalition talks in Ankara on Aug. 13. (Photo: Cihan)

August 13, 2015, Thursday/ 13:10:25/ TODAY'S ZAMAN / ANKARA

RELATED NEWS

Lira at record low, stocks slide after coalition talks fail

The talks for a coalition government between the ruling and main opposition parties have failed, as widely expected, following a final meeting on Thursday.

“An early election has emerged as the only possibility,” Ahmet Davutoğlu, leader of the interim Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government, told reporters following the meeting.

Davutoğlu met with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), for a final round of negotiations at the Ankara Palace State Guesthouse at 2 p.m.

An early election is to be held within three months, most possibly in November.

“Given the different expectations that the grassroots of the two parties have, we have reached the conclusion that there is no ground for us to be partners in a [coalition] government,” Davutoğlu said in a press conference shortly after the leaders' meeting.

Davutoğlu, who is also acting prime minister, said his party would also try to get in touch with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) for forging a coalition despite the negative attitude of the MHP. But he admitted that an early election is the only possibility considering the MHP's attitude.

Davutoğlu pointed to Parliament as the institution that should decide about how Turkeyshould go to the early election.

“I believe Parliament will give the best decision regarding an early election,” he said at the press conference in the AK Party headquarters.

Davutoğlu said the negotiations for a coalition with the CHP did not bear fruit due to deep disagreements between the parties on mainly foreign policy and education policies.

He also revealed that the CHP did not agree to be a part of an election government with the AK Party that would be tasked with carrying out some reforms including legal amendments.

It is widely known that the AK Party is in favor of a short-term government, while the CHP favors a coalition government with a full four-year term.

The CHP favors the formation of a government that would carry out fundamental reforms to eliminate anti-democratic practices by the AK Party government in recent years.

CHP says got no offer for coalition

The CHP leader's statement, which came after Davutoğlu's press conference, revealed his frustration about the negotiations process with the AK Party.

The CHP leader said at the press conference at the party headquarters that the AK Party never came up with a real offer to forge a coalition during the negotiations.

"The AK Party just offered us to be part of an election government that would be in place for a three-month period or a minority government" that would be formed by AK Party and backed by the CHP, Kılıçdaroğlu told reporters.

In response to a question about what was discussed during the coalition talks, the CHP leader said: “What negotiations? There weren't any negotiations. They [AK Party] asked for our opinions and we gave them our opinions.”

Kılıçdaroğlu said it is Davutoğlu who should be asked why the coalition could not be formed.

The CHP leader criticized Davutoğlu for announcing that they would continue coalition talks with other parties despite the very low odds for success and insisted that he should not retain the mandate to form a government, saying it would be unethical.

"This is called usurpation of authority," said Kılıçdaroğlu.

Davutoğlu's continuation with coalition rounds will deprive Kılıçdaroğlu of the chance to be given the mandate by the president to form a coalition government.

In a written statement on Wednesday, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli once again called on the AK Party to forge a coalition with the CHP, reiterating his party's unwillingness to be a part of a coalition government with the AK Party.

"If a visit by Mr. Davutoğlu to our party is being planned because of a piece of advice by [President Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan, it should be known that such a meeting will never happen," Bahçeli said.

In their second meeting this week, which lasted an hour and a half, the leaders discussed issues over lunch.

The leaders' final meeting came after five rounds of preliminary coalition talks in the past weeks designed for the parties to get to know the other's stance on major topics.

The two leaders were also accompanied by the AK Party's Ömer Çelik and the CHP's Haluk Koç, the heads of the two parties' delegations involved in the preliminary talks.

It has been widely argued since the general election in June that Davutoğlu is more inclined to forge a coalition with the CHP, while President Erdoğan and some figures within the AK Party who are close to the president have been pushing for an early election.

Top CHP officials have repeatedly expressed in recent weeks the party's willingness to forge a coalition with the AK Party.

Maintaining that Davutoğlu is under Erdoğan's tutelage, the CHP has long argued that the AK Party chose to extend the talks over a long period to give the impression to the public that it did its best to forge a coalition.

It was probably clear following Monday's meeting, which was the first between the leaders, that the talks would not bear fruit, but a final meeting was arranged for Thursday as the AK Party did not want to be perceived as the one that left the table.

In the general election on June 7, in which the AK Party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since coming to power in 2002, no single party got enough votes to form a government.

It has been widely argued that the interim ruling party and Erdoğan are hoping, thanks to the ongoing military campaign against the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), that votes for the party would increase in an early election among nationalist voters in order for the party to form a single-party government.

In a step that could boost the AK Party's votes, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) recently started attacking the PKK for the first time since a settlement process aimed at resolving the country's Kurdish issue was launched at the end of 2012.

Recent polls indicate an approximate 2 percent increase in votes for the AK Party, which may be enough for it to secure power as a single party.

The CHP had earlier called on the president to give the mandate to form a government to the CHP leader should the talks fail, but it is likely that Davutoğlu will also knock on the doors of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) for coalition talks.

In such an event, there will be no time left for the CHP's Kılıçdaroğlu to be assigned with the task of forming a coalition as Erdoğan recently revealed he would not extend the time period allotted for coalition efforts.

According to the Constitution, the president can call for an early election if a government is not formed within 45 days after the election of all members of the Speaker's Council in Parliament.

The time allotted for coalition talks will end on Aug. 23. The 18-member Speaker's Council was formed on July 9, immediately after which Erdoğan gave Davutoğlu the mandate to form a government.

The negotiations between the two parties processed at snail's pace, which the CHP leader criticized in a press meeting held following Davutoğlu's the same day.

Erdoğan, who previously headed AK Party governments for over a decade before being elected president last August, is still a powerful figure in the party.

Since the election, Erdoğan has implicitly made it clear that he favors a snap election.

In an address to muhtars (those administratively in charge of neighborhoods in towns and villages) from around the country at the presidential palace on Wednesday, Erdoğan once again intimated that an early election is his number one choice.

Unless the principles of both sides match, forging a coalition would be like committing suicide, Erdoğan said, adding that no party should be expected to take such a step.

The secular CHP is the main rival of the Islamist AK Party. Polls indicate a large majority of AK Party voters are not in favor of a coalition with the CHP. The AK Party, which received almost 41 percent of the vote in the June election, currently has 258 deputies in Parliament. Should the AK Party manage to get an additional 18 deputies elected in a snap poll, it can form a single-party government.

A total of 276 seats, representing an absolute majority in the 550-seat Parliament, are required to form a government. According to a recent Hürriyet daily report, if the AK Party is able to receive some 5,000 votes in some provinces more than in the last election, the party could get nearly 25 additional seats in Parliament.

President Erdoğan told reporters earlier in the week he would not extend the 45-day deadline for coalition talks, which has been widely perceived as a desire for an early election. "I don't have the authority to extend the 45-day [deadline]," Erdoğan said in response to a question asking if he would use his initiative to extend the deadline.

The CHP dismissed Erdoğan's argument about extending the deadline, saying the related article is one of the few in the Constitution that lends itself to flexibility.

The article in question, Article 116, says: “In cases where the Council of Ministers fails to receive a vote of confidence under Article 110 or is compelled to resign by a vote of no-confidence under Article 99 or 111, and if a new Council of Ministers cannot be formed within 45 days or the new Council of Ministers fails to receive a vote of confidence, the President of the Republic, in consultation with the Speaker of the Assembly [Parliament], may call for new elections.”

Government options ahead of early election

A Justice and Development Party (AK Party) minority government (early election): In the event of failure to make a deal with either the Republican People's Party (CHP) or the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) for a coalition government, the AK Party will reportedly offer a minority government to bring the country to an early election. If it secures support from one of the opposition parties, the AK Party may form a minority government. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has said he is opposed to a minority government, will, however, give this option the green light if it is formed by the AK Party.

A CHP-MHP government (early election): If all options involving the AK Party are exhausted, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu proposes holding an early election under the rule of an AK Party-free government. MHP leaderDevlet Bahçeli, who has made it clear they would not take part in any political option involving the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), may make the sacrifice he referred to early this week. Backstage MHP rumors suggest they may consent to a CHP-MHP minority government. They believe this option may increase the possibility of swing voters opting for the MHP.

A CHP minority government (early election): This is a possibility that might be considered after exhausting all coalition alternatives. It is quite likely the MHP will extend strong support for this option, though the HDP will reluctantly support it because the HDP has the opportunity to serve in a coalition under a different option. Erdoğan will be the greatest obstacle to a CHP minority government.

An AK Party government by Parliament decision (early election): This will be on the table if a minority government is not formed. To invoke this option, Parliament should take a decision for an early election without exhausting the 45-day period. The AK Party's greatest hope in this case is the MHP. If the first five options are exhausted, the MHP may support a decision for an early election to prevent an option involving the HDP.

A four-party government (early election): After the 45-day period expires, an interim Cabinet will have to be formed. This process will be started by a decision by Erdoğan to call for an election. In this case, an individual to be appointed by Erdoğan will form the government. Impartial names will be appointed as the ministers of justice, the interior and transportation. There is no requirement for a vote of confidence in this case of an interim Cabinet where all parties will have their stake. It will be formed on Aug. 22 and will start the election process. The election will be held on the first Sunday after the 90th day (Nov. 20) and thus will be held on Nov. 22. (Ali Aslan Kılıç, Ankara)

Keywords: Ahmet Davutoğlu , Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu , AK Party , CHP , Turkey , ISIL , Recep Tayyip Erdoğan