POLITICS

Jeb Bush’s Camp Sees an Upside to Donald Trump’s Surge in the G.O.P.

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Jeb Bush spoke at the National Urban League conference in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on Friday, part of an effort to go to “places where Republicans haven’t been seen in a long, long while.” Melissa Lyttle for The New York Times
WASHINGTON — It may be the Summer of Trump, but the publicity-hungry real estate magnate is not the only Republican presidential candidate relishing all his attention.
Donald J. Trump’s surge in the polls has been met with barely concealed delight by Jeb Bush and his supporters. Mr. Trump’s bombastic ways have simultaneously made it all but impossible for those vying to be the alternative to Mr. Bush to emerge, and easier for Mr. Bush, the former Florida governor, to position himself as the serious and thoughtful alternative to a candidate who has upended the early nominating process.
With little indication that his support is slipping and the promise of the center stage at Thursday’s debate, Mr. Trump has essentially frozen the rest of the field.
“The longer it goes, the greater the panic is going to build,” said Alex Castellanos, a longtime Republican strategist. “And that means you may not have the luxury to flirt with an undeveloped, budding candidate. Trump has set the Republican Party on fire, and if you’re going to put that fire out you don’t have time to waste. You’re going to have to grab the biggest blanket you got and throw it, and right now that’s Jeb.”

What Jeb Bush Would Need to Do to Win

Many Republican officials, while acknowledging that Mr. Trump has tapped into the current of anti-establishment anger, believe he has little chance to ultimately win the nomination. The broad attention given to his position atop national polls overshadows more worrisome indicators for him, including the substantial number of potential primary voters who say they would not support him under any circumstances.
But for the moment he is depriving many of the other 16 Republican candidates of the political oxygen they need to win attention from grass-roots supporters in early nominating states and commitments from fence-riding donors.
That mainly helps Mr. Bush, who can quietly continue to build his daunting advantages in money and organization while his would-be challengers struggle to break through.
The frustration among those other aspirants is beginning to spill into public.
“I think this is a temporary loss of sanity,” Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky said on CNN Thursday of Mr. Trump’s support, adding: “If you would give some other candidates time from 8 in the morning to 8 at night all day long for three weeks, I’m guessing some other candidates might rise as well.”

What Donald Trump Would Need to Do to Win

Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey could barely contain his exasperation when asked about Mr. Trump’s claim that he would not only build a wall on the Mexican border but would even have Mexico pay for it.
“When you do that, it hurts the credibility of the presidency,” Mr. Christie said on CNBC.
A Monmouth University poll of New Hampshire voters released last week emphasized the problem for them: With Mr. Trump in the race, Mr. Christie drew 4 percent and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin 7 percent. But the same poll showed that, if Mr. Trump were to drop out, Mr. Christie would pick up 15 percent of Trump voters, and Mr. Walker 14 percent.
In Iowa, a crucial state for Mr. Walker, Mr. Trump is now statistically tied with him, according to an NBC Marist poll of potential Republican caucusgoers.
Mr. Bush’s enthusiasts, meanwhile, are all but giddy, even though it would be much better if he were simply dominating the field.

Who Is Running for President?

“You got to give Trump credit,” Senator Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah, said with a grin. “He’s really created a firestorm here. Because he is such a controversial character, and an interesting one at that, it’s taken away opportunities for an awful lot of others to break through.” At the same time, Mr. Hatch said, Mr. Bush “comes across as the one guy you can rely on.”
Mr. Bush has been openly critical of Mr. Trump and “the vitriol that he’s spewing out these days,” while being increasingly emphatic about the need for Republicans to embrace a more optimistic and inclusive message. It is a theme aimed not just at the general electorate, but also at Republican primary voters eager to back a candidate who can generate broad appeal and win the White House.
“We have to campaign all across this country with joy in our heart rather than anger,” Mr. Bush said in suburban Orlando last week, vowing to a heavily white crowd that he would campaign in minority communities and on college campuses — “places where Republicans haven’t been seen in a long, long while.”
Mr. Bush’s campaign is aggressively highlighting these efforts. He began last week speaking before a diverse group of pastors in Orlando, which has a fast-growing Hispanic population, and sitting for an interview with Jose Diaz-Balart of MSNBC.
And he ended it with an address to the National Urban League Conference and an interview with Lester Holt of NBC.

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Privately, Mr. Bush’s top strategists, who have become increasingly fixated on halting Mr. Walker, believe that Mr. Trump is nothing short of a godsend. That is because Mr. Trump is drawing support from voters — blue-collar, less-educated, more conservative — who are unlikely ever to support Mr. Bush but are essential to Mr. Walker’s candidacy.
What complicates matters for Mr. Walker, and any of the other Republicans vying for that restive conservative base, is that they will have difficulty matching the bluster or promises of Mr. Trump because he does not operate within the conventional boundaries of political discourse.
“Trump is much more willing to be provocative,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster. “He’ll say something outrageous, and then where do they go? And that’s the challenge.”
The extent to which the other candidates feel they need to compete with Mr. Trump for that pool of voters may become clear in Thursday’s debate. If candidates like Mr. Walker, Mr. Christie, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas directly engage with Mr. Trump, it is an indication of the urgency they feel to cut into his support.
But it is unclear what exactly can be done to tarnish Mr. Trump with voters who are drawn to him. His incendiary comments and his personal history have done little to diminish his appeal.
“It’ll be death by 100 cuts, and he’s probably only in his 20s,” conceded Chris LaCivita, an adviser to Mr. Paul and a veteran operative, adding that Mr. Bush’s team is “laughing their way through the summer.”
Even those skeptical about Mr. Trump now say they believe he will remain a factor in the race into this fall, at least through the second debate in mid-September. Many party strategists anticipate he will ultimately self-destruct if exposed as having little familiarity with the pressing issues facing the country.
If there is good news about Mr. Trump’s rise for those looking for a shot at Mr. Bush, it is that the first votes will not be cast for six months.
“If you’re another candidate, the good thing is that it’s early,” said Robert Gleason, chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, adding of Mr. Trump: “He’s put the block on everything, just stopped everything dead.”