Are Smartwatches Already Dead?
Do people actually want smartwatches? I'm starting to wonder. The Pebble smartwatch—a phenomenal Kickstarter success story and the darling of tech critics everywhere—has only sold 1 million copies.
Don't get me wrong, that's fantastic news for Pebble and for anyone with a Pebble on their wrist. One million units means Pebble can keep building watches that find a happy niche. But one million units sounds like jack shit compared to all the attention Pebble's been getting over the past few years. That smartwatches in general have been getting.
Let me put this in perspective. Wearables are ostensibly the new hotness. They're the tech everyone's talking about. And if you want to buy a wearable, you buy a smartwatch. (Becauseain't nobody buying Google Glass till they figure the whole Glasshole thing out.) Guess what you find when you go looking for a smartwatch? Pebble. Pebble. Pebble. It's the one everyone recommends. In fact, CNET, The Wirecutter, The Verge and yes, Gizmodo recommend the simple Pebble and Pebble Steel smartwatches over every other fancy wristable out there.
It feels like more gallons of (figurative) ink has been spilled about the virtues of Pebble—and the company's incredible journey from Kickstarter to Best Buy—than actual smartwatches sold. When was the last time a product was so universally recommended in a category on the tip of everyone's tongue... and yet didn't move loads of product? Despite competition and a love-it-or-hate-it design, the first Android phone only took six months to hit a million. The original Microsoft Zune (yes, the ugly one) took seven months. Pebble started shipping two years ago.
It's still early days for smartwatches. The Apple Watch isn't even out yet, and it's possible that a lot of potential buyers are waiting to see if Apple blows the doors off the smartwatch category as it swoops in for the kill. The Pebble certainly isn't a perfect device, either. I rarely wear one myself. But you couldn't buy the kind of press that Pebble has received for any amount of money, and yet the top smartwatch in the market has only sold one million units right now.
What does it mean when the best smartwatch only sells a million? Is there even a smartwatch market at all? I'm not so sure. And if the Apple Watch flops—due to battery life?—all bets could be off. Maybe this fuse has almost burned down to its firecracker, or maybe we've got a dud on our hands.
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The state of the smart watch is pretty much where mp3 players were just before the iPod came out. There were a few options available, but nobody really realized they wanted/needed one until the iPod came along.
Same with the smart phone. Same with tablets.
Pebble and company were at a disadvantage out of the gate, because the Apple watch rumors were already brewing before they came out. Given Apple's track record, I'm willing to bet most people who would want a smart watch have just been biding their time until Apple does their thing, or, like the iPod/iPhone/iPad, don't even know they want a smart watch at all...yet.
Except for the rumors of abysmal battery life... In order to create a new product that costs a couple hundred dollars for mass market purposes, it had better solve a problem/notably increase quality of life. From the sounds of it, there's won't either, making it just another luxury item.
Further, I'm pretty confident that Apple's Golden Age has ended. I don't expect them to pull off any paradigm shifts any time soon.
I said the exact same thing when the iPad was announced. You could be right, we'll see.
To be perfectly honest, I still see no value in tablets, at least for non-hybrids. I've always considered them a half-baked in-between for phones and laptops, with features that aren't as good as either. Everyone has a smartphone, so I just can't understand why people buy tablets. Convertibles/hybrids like the Surface Pro or Yoga? Sure. Makes sense. iPad and the like? Nope. Of course, as phones have gotten larger, I'd guess that they've negatively impacted tablet sales, so I'm still holding out for my prediction that tablets will ultimately fail.
Agreed. I have a tablet I don't use because my phone is more portable and my laptop is more powerful. But a gigantic billion dollar industry now disagrees with both of us, and it was nothing before Apple stepped into the ring. Smart watches could go the same route.
Smartwatches are in a weird place, I have a Moto 360 and people love it and say they want one too. Then I tell them what the price is ($250) and they say oh wow. $250 is a standard price for a nice watch for a average person and this one does so much more.
I get the same reaction... and then I say "Well, I was in the market for a nice watch already, as I haven't had one for a few years... so the price wasn't really a factor for me". That seems to make a lot of sense to people. The problem is nice watches, in general, aren't on a lot of people's wish list. If you're purchasing a smart watch as a wearable, and not a nice watch that also does notifications, then it seems expensive.
Personally, I don't think smart watches are going to be for everyone... nor do I think they're going away. They will remain a niche product, just like nice watches are.
Yeah but I think the looming prospect of obsolescence puts people off. Especially when we are used to watches lasting basically forever if you want them to.
Yea, that's always a point with smartwatches, you have to upgrade but it will always tell the time.
For me, no matter how much I enjoy technology, the smart watch doesn't really do anything for me, because of specs, cost for function ratio (are there sub $100 smart watches worth buying?) and because in my mind a smart watch would need to solve something for me.
For example, maybe if I couldn't take my phone out? But I'm able to text and what not through a browser, so the watch is out.
Do I need a watch that is more than a watch? No, my phone is a "watch" and is more than a watch already.
Do I want a portable small sized screen? No, there is a reason I enjoy my Note 4 and not a puny 4.3 inch screen (The almost 2 inches makes a difference and for when that's not enough I also have a Note Pro 12) so I don't go blind.
Do I need a fitness monitor? No, my fat ass is reminder enough to be active. Plus something that tells you how much you do, or how much you burn is an unneeded expense even if it was $20.
Do I want to have a smartwatch that is another item I have to recharge/replace batteries for?
Hell no. I have mechanical watches that use my movement as energy, for the exact reason of not needing batteries. I have yet to find a wireless charging solution for my Note 4 that I like so that I don't have to deal with plugging it in. I have a solar powered keyboard, and if I could I'd do the same with my mouse. But I already have plenty of devices to plug in to recharge, not to add one more. (Which smart watch supposedly has an easy wireless charging dock? Maybe I'll look at it but still not sold on it)
Right now I'm more interested in VR like the Oculus rift as an expenditure. Or a surface pro 3 to replace my laptops, as far as any tech related expense in my immediate future goes.
Also, as far as watches are concerned, I prefer to spend some money on a very good looking mechanical watch than a smart watch because of its perceived value. For me the watch is a luxury time piece, and one stuffed with tech isn't yet in the area where I perceive it to be a smart investment/expense/possession.
A watch I'm selling retailed for $2k, (I wouldn't spend more than that, as then it just borders on wasteful for my taste/income bracket)
For example, maybe if I couldn't take my phone out? But I'm able to text and what not through a browser, so the watch is out.
Do I need a watch that is more than a watch? No, my phone is a "watch" and is more than a watch already.
Do I want a portable small sized screen? No, there is a reason I enjoy my Note 4 and not a puny 4.3 inch screen (The almost 2 inches makes a difference and for when that's not enough I also have a Note Pro 12) so I don't go blind.
Do I need a fitness monitor? No, my fat ass is reminder enough to be active. Plus something that tells you how much you do, or how much you burn is an unneeded expense even if it was $20.
Do I want to have a smartwatch that is another item I have to recharge/replace batteries for?
Hell no. I have mechanical watches that use my movement as energy, for the exact reason of not needing batteries. I have yet to find a wireless charging solution for my Note 4 that I like so that I don't have to deal with plugging it in. I have a solar powered keyboard, and if I could I'd do the same with my mouse. But I already have plenty of devices to plug in to recharge, not to add one more. (Which smart watch supposedly has an easy wireless charging dock? Maybe I'll look at it but still not sold on it)
Right now I'm more interested in VR like the Oculus rift as an expenditure. Or a surface pro 3 to replace my laptops, as far as any tech related expense in my immediate future goes.
Also, as far as watches are concerned, I prefer to spend some money on a very good looking mechanical watch than a smart watch because of its perceived value. For me the watch is a luxury time piece, and one stuffed with tech isn't yet in the area where I perceive it to be a smart investment/expense/possession.
A watch I'm selling retailed for $2k, (I wouldn't spend more than that, as then it just borders on wasteful for my taste/income bracket)
I really want one, but as with tablets, I can't justify spending $200+ on a device that does everything my phone does.
If I got it as a present though, I would be super excited and wear it all the time.
I'm pretty sure everyone's in this boat. Darn near everyone would wear one, but very few actually want to pay for that.
and thats the makers/sellers problem, nice, but not so nice i will pay that for it... when they last 3 days and can be turned off and just used as a clock, have built in mic/speaker for calls, talk to text should be realy working well by then, etc etc and they cost 25 quid ($100) i and millions of others will flock to the shops, til then, bleh....
The thing about a tablet is it does the things your phone can do, but on a bigger screen, which is good for things like reading digital comics, or watching a video, or even for some games (I enjoy The Wolf Among Us on my Nexus 9 more than I did on my Nexus 5).
But the watch doesn't even do everything your phone does, it relies on being connected to your phone so you'd have to justify even more. I'd be super excited and wear it if I got one as a gift too though.
" I rarely wear one myself."
I think you answered your own question. But seriously, what do smart watches offer? I have a laptop that serves a mostly work purpose, a tablet that is my field PA and Internet and media consumption device, and a phone that facilitates communication. What is the purpose of the watch? You don't even care enough to wear it.
What purpose does a tablet serve when you have a laptop? The laptop can do more.
I is merely a different way to consume the same data. A very convenient way I might add.
I is merely a different way to consume the same data. A very convenient way I might add.
Portability. I Take public transit regularly and it's nice to have tethered to my phone. A smart watch is not more portable than a smart phone. I don't get it yet. I just don't see what it offers that is worth the price. $250 to not have to reach into your pocket to read a text message?
Actually Transit is one of the key times I use my smartwatch. Since I started wearing a smartwatch a few years back, I have encountered on several occasions a very crowded bus in which my phone was buzzing away in my pocket with someone calling, texting or emailing, and I have been able to merely glance at my wrist to determine whether it was worth elbowing or accidentally groping my fellow riders to reach down and try and wrestle my phone out of my pocket. Also, I never had to let go of the handrail to do it.
So there you go, same reason, portability.
I think you greatly overestimate how many people care about the opinions of tech blogs. I'd be willing to bet that many in the general, non tech enthusiast public did not know what a smartwatch was (or had only a basic understanding and no interest) until Apple announced one. I don't think they're dead already, I think they haven't even gotten started. Now whether they have staying power, hell if I know, I'm not sold on them yet. I think we should wait till the Apple watch hits before we declare them dead.
I have a Pebble, I waited out as much as possible to get it, not because of the Apple Watch but rather because "did I really need something beeping constantly to tell me when something's happening on my phone?"
I love it though, but most people can't tell the difference with a >normal watch< in the best of cases, basically because, the average person doesn't really WANT or care about the miriad of notifications tech-addicts do (myself included). An aunt said "That's lovely! It actually SAYS the time rather than looking at a clock face" and that was the biggest selling point for her, when she saw I got a FB notification on it, she was... less than thrilled.
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