POLITICS  | LETTER FROM WASHINGTON 

Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson May Play Key Roles in Republican Race

By ALBERT R. HUNT | BLOOMBERG VIEW
WASHINGTON — None of the three candidates who joined the Republican presidential contest last week — Mike Huckabee, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson — will win the nomination.
That’s the view of politically smart strategists who nevertheless say that all three, especially Mr. Huckabee, could play important roles in shaping the race.
First, here’s why these latest entries are unlikely to prevail. The Republican coalition has three pillars, all relatively conservative: economic, national security and social issues. A candidate has to be acceptable to at least two of the three. At this stage, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and perhaps Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky make the grade.
Mr. Huckabee — the populist Baptist preacher, former Arkansas governor and talk-show host — doesn’t. He is adored by the social right, hated by economic conservatives and isn’t respected by many national security hawks.
Moreover, there’s skepticism about his ability to raise the funds to go the distance. In 2008, after winning the initial Iowa caucuses, he lacked the resources to compete through the nominating process. There’s a general sense that 2012 was his time. He passed.
Mr. Carson, a prominent physician, and Ms. Fiorina, the former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, are political novices, neither has ever been elected to office. The supposed appeal of nonpoliticians in America is superficial.
In a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll released last week, almost 70 percent said they would be uncomfortable with a presidential candidate who lacks previous experience in government.
Mr. Carson and Ms. Fiorina, both cancer survivors, have appealing narratives. Mr. Carson’s résumé is more impressive: He is one of the world’s most renowned pediatric neurosurgeons. (He once operated on our son.) Ms. Fiorina was fired as C.E.O. of Hewlett-Packard and generally gets negative reviews for her performance.
The possible import of Mr. Carson, who espouses a hard-right line and has attracted a following in places such as Iowa, is that movement conservatives account for half of the vote in several early contests. Governor Walker and Senator Rubio could get a small slice of those votes, as will Senator Paul, whose basic appeal is to libertarians.
More than 40 percent of the vote is likely to go to a movement right aspirant. In 2012, the Iowa caucus was won with 24 percent of the vote, in a smaller and less capable field.
The difference between Mr. Carson getting 5 percent and 10 percent may well decide if one of the movement right candidates tops 20 percent, which could be first place.
The top two right-wing candidates are Mr. Huckabee and Senator Cruz. A no-holds-barred debate between these tough customers, similar in ideology, vastly different in style, would be worthy of Las Vegas. Senator Cruz, a brilliant lawyer and champion debater, would assail Mr. Huckabee as a tax-increasing governor who commuted the sentences of hardened criminals, including one who went on to commit murder.
The folksy and fiery Mr. Huckabee could attack the Texas senator for supporting President Obama on free trade and for his ties to Wall Street and the Republican donor class.
Ms. Fiorina’s corporate background is probably better preparation for politics than brain surgery. She’s unlikely to make embarrassing gaffes like Mr. Carson’s recent charge, which he later retracted, that people enter prison as heterosexuals and leave gay.
Elements of the Republican establishment welcome Ms. Fiorina’s candidacy. She’s the only woman, and the party has a gender problem. She’s a willing attack dog against Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Yet if she ever does better than the point or two that she scores in current polls, it would likely be at the expense of an establishment type such as Mr. Bush.
In the most wide open Republican race in the past half-century, there are no certainties, and maybe even no likelihoods. A year from now it’s improbable that we’ll look back on the events of the past week as seminal, but they may affect how the race looks then.