Monday, December 28, 2015

Rio Times- "The Curmudgeon" -Opinion

Opinion: The Curmudgeon on 2016 in Brazil

Dilma will not resign, nor be impeached, nor will the 2014 election be overturned.
Opinion by Michael Royster
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL — Everybody likes to do lists this time of year, and the Curmudgeon is no exception. The Crystal Ball has been uncovered, and revealed ten (10) things. Read on.
The Curmudgeon, aka Michael Royster.
The Curmudgeon, aka Michael Royster.
1. Dilma will not be impeached. Recent STF decisions have gutted the powers of the Chamber of Deputies and its leaders in favor of the Senate, where Dilma supporters are in the majority.
2. Dilma will not resign. She is nothing if not stubborn, and she still believes she was cut out to guide Brazil onto the path of “true” socialism. Most of her favorite economic policies do not recognize the Fall of the Wall in 1989, much less the defeats of Chávez and Kirchner.
3. Dilma’s 2014 election victory will not be disallowed by the TSE. That court, which can overturn an election for abuses of power during election campaigns, has far too many judges who feel abuses of power are perfectly normal behaviour for incumbents, hence should not be punishable.
4. Dilma will insist upon implementing the same disastrous economic policies that produced the current debacle: she still thinks problems can be solved by throwing money at them. Dilma will join other populist panderers to scuttle any change in the disastrous social security legislation that allows workers to retire at age fifty on full pay and adjusts pensions by more than the minimum salary increase.
5. Congress, state and municipal legislatures will continue to be the same corrupt slough of despond they have long been, with elected representatives thinking not about the good of the people, but about how to line their own pockets before going to jail.
6. Ambitious Brazilian politicians, unable to find space for themselves in the more than thirty already established political parties, will continue to form new parties, standing for nothing at all other than their founder’s self-aggrandizement. In the meantime, PT and PSDB will see their membership drop, leaving the field to PMDB.
7. Brazil’s economy will continue to grow worse, with both inflation and unemployment staying in double figures all year long. The current recession will deteriorate into a full blown depression in 2016.
8. The U.S. dollar will remain above R$4,00 and may hit R$5,00 as government economists (meaning Dilma) continue to dig after hitting rock bottom. Foreign investment will not grow with that theoretically beneficial scenario, because of Brazil’s political insecurity.
9. The October elections for mayors and city councilmen (“vereadores”) will prove once again that Brazilians repeatedly vote for candidates they know to be churls, because the churls have promised them a better life—or at least some more spending money.
10. The 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympic and Paralympic Games will be a great success, particularly for the crooked cartel of construction companies and their political cronies who have combined to create billion-dollar cost overruns.
During 2016, The Curmudgeon will continue to believe that Brazil is a serious country, or at least would be if its voters ever ceased electing crooks to public office.

4 Responses to "Opinion: The Curmudgeon on 2016 in Brazil"

  1.  sven van 't Veer December 27, 2015 at 11:56 AM
    Totally correct analysis.
  2.  wyeth December 27, 2015 at 12:30 PM
    A country with such unbelievable potential continually being destroyed by political low life thievery.
    Now it has reached the pinnacle of the absurd.
    Where will it go from here?
  3.  Neil Turner December 27, 2015 at 12:44 PM
    For the better part of this year, I have been making comments concerning the current “state of affairs” in Brasil. These comments have appeared in Ken Raposo’s (a native Brasileiro working for Forbes Magazine in the US) column. I repeated echoed almost exactly the same sentiments as the Curmudgeon in all ten of his predictions. However, there is one that I believe he has overlooked. The current economic crisis will not end for at least seven years (economists who know about prime rate cycles, etc. and how they work already know this but do not want to take responsibility for saying it) . And, with the current political chaos still center stage and nowhere near resolution, this “crisis” may potentially last longer. As an American living in Brasil for almost ten years, I am of the opinion that the dollar will continue to rise, inflation and unemployment will continue to deepen, crime will explode, and the loss of FDI will cripple any chance Brasil has to pull out of this crisis. Until the political arena cleans up its act, their is very little confidence in investing in Brasil. As for Brasil’s plentiful oil reserves, as a result of the “collapse and consolidate” strategy that is being applied, a good portion of the oil revenues will be purchased by foreign nations for considerably less…now, let’s see what happens…tchau.
  4.  Ex Pat December 27, 2015 at 5:24 PM
    As a 68 year old expat from England now living the good life in Brasil, I would like to state a phrase my father used to say to me when I found myself dealing with unions. The phrase was ” United we stand, divided we fall”.
    Until the political party system is changed and the number of parties are reduced to a maneagable amount, there will never be union, because the 30 odd political parties create their own divisions.
    At present Brasil is not a democracy, simply for the reason, in a democracy any accused person is innocent until proven guilty, here in Brasil the opposite is the norm, anybody can accuse someone else of doing things against the law, by issuing a process against the person they think has done things against the law, proof off said illegal doing is not required, it is then upto the accused to defend themselves and prove their innocence, lawyers fees etc are strictly for the accused, the Justice will not accrue expenses , legal fees as it does in a democratic country, even when the Justice agrees the accused in innocent. However the Justice will apply a fine on the person who bought the action to court for wasting the courts time.
    The Petrobras scandal and corruption by the so called politicians who the ill informed put their faith in is tantamount to treason, on an epic scale and the punishment should fit the crime, however because of the disunity in government, said government is able to manipulate the proceedings to suit themselves.
    The one really sad outcome of all the problems Brasil has is that it could be such a fantastic country for its people but until the number of political parties are reduced to single figures, and education of the next generations are improved nothing will change.

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