POLITICS

John Kasich Is In, Rick Perry Is Out in First Republican Debate

By MAGGIE HABERMAN
Just part of the crowded field of Republican presidential candidates, after a forum on Monday in Manchester, N.H.Jim Cole/Associated Press
Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is in and former Gov. Rick Perry of Texas is out of Fox News’s Republican debate on Thursday night in Cleveland, officials with the network said Tuesday, resolving the mystery of which lower-polling candidates would make the cut for the first debate of the 2016 presidential contest.
The network announced the 10 candidates who will have a podium spot for the main forum, which is expected to draw wide national viewership and give an invaluable platform to the candidates involved. The remaining seven will be part of an earlier forum airing at 5 p.m. that day.
Fox News’s “decision desk,” which does its election night calls, sifted through five national polls, including the network’s own survey released late Monday, to select the top 10 candidates for the debate based on the polling.
The others included in the lineup are Donald J. Trump, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ben Carson, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

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The process has been fraught with complaints, but driven by the reality of dealing with a candidate field far bigger than was ever anticipated. The current rules, however, mean that a sitting governor, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and a sitting senator, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, will be relegated to the second-tier event.
There were few options for how Fox News, which was awarded the first official Republican debate after a process worked out by the Republican National Committee, could navigate such a sprawling field. The network and Facebook are hosting the events.
The number of Republicans running vastly exceeds that of other recent election cycles, a reflection of the prospect of capturing the White House without a Republican incumbent and also a belief for many that there is no strong candidate in the field keeping them out.
In a Bloomberg News poll this week of registered voters who identify as Republicans, about 71 percent of those surveyed approved of how Fox News has handled the debates. And an early-state forum that aired on C-Span on Monday night, with 14 of the candidates, highlighted how unwieldy the process is.
A memo from the network’s decision desk said the polls it used were all nationally recognized nonpartisan surveys.

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“Each poll has a different margin of error, and averaging requires a distinct test of statistical significance,” the memo said. “Given the over 2,400 interviews contained within the five polls, from a purely statistical perspective it is at least 90 percent likely that the 10th place Kasich is ahead of the 11th place Perry.”
But some critics said that the national polls used to select the debate participants had too small a sample size, with too wide a margin of error, to adequately assess a candidate’s standing.
“I don’t know why they didn’t just do one large poll of primary voters,” said Matthew Dowd, a former adviser to President George W. Bush.
“This has been one of the best quality fields we’ve seen in a long time — it’s just an amazing field,” said David Winston, a top Republican pollster who worked for Newt Gingrich in the 2012 presidential race.
Of those who did not make the prime-time debate, he said, “these are quality candidates who have earned the right to be involved in a presidential debate.”

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There should have been a way to accommodate sitting senators and governors with records of accomplishment, Mr. Winston said. “I understand that having that many candidates is a challenge and it’s a problem they should have figured out a way to resolve,” he said.
Allies of some candidates who were spurned are turning their attention to the early nominating states.
“The debate’s gotten disproportionate attention — the real race is happening in Iowa and New Hampshire,” said Brad Todd, an adviser to the “super PAC” backing Mr. Jindal, who has drawn large crowds in Iowa.
Mr. Todd said his group planned to air a 60-second ad in Iowa during the debate, one that criticizes the forum taking place in Cleveland.
“The donor class will not pick the nominee, nor will the establishment in Washington, nor a cable network,” Mr. Todd said. “I think it could have been done better for all concerned.”
Aides to Mr. Perry sounded a note of high-mindedness about it all, after weeks of some frustrations over the process.
The former Texas governor is “going to have a very thoughtful conversation about the country and what he thinks ought to be done for the opportunity for this country,” said Jeff Miller, an adviser to Mr. Perry.
And there are certain upsides, he said: “There’s a good chance that 9 p.m. debate stage is going to be turned into a circus.”