Aug.4
Political News, Now.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Remain in Dead Heat in New Hampshire, Poll Shows
Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont continues to tighten the race with Hillary Rodham Clinton in New Hampshire, according to a poll released on Tuesday.
The WMUR Granite State poll found that 42 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would vote for Mrs. Clinton, while 36 percent said they supported Mr. Sanders. The survey considers that gap to be a statistical tie, but it shows that Mr. Sanders continues to show strength after months of negative publicity about Mrs. Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state.
The poll also found that Mr. Sanders is the most popular Democratic candidate in the state in terms of favorability, with a rating of 59 percent. That tops Mrs. Clinton’s 54 percent.
Other candidates, including Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland, and Jim Webb, the former senator from Virginia, have gained little traction in Democratic polls so far; Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who is still mulling a run, was a distant third in the WMUR poll.
Mrs. Clinton had an eight-point lead over Mr. Sanders in New Hampshire in June, a poll that was also considered a tie, and she led him by double-digits there in the spring.
Despite her significant advantages in fund-raising and name recognition, Mrs. Clinton has also shown signs of weakness against Republican rivals in recent swing state polls.
A bright note for Mrs. Clinton, however, is that only 20 percent of New Hampshire voters said they had definitely made up their mind about a Democratic candidate. Although the former first lady and senator is no longer the clear favorite in the state, she still has time to win over more of its voters.
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As Debate Goes On Without Jindal, Super PAC’s Ad Will Support Him in Iowa
The super PAC backing Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, who was relegated to the second-tier debate panel on Thursday in Cleveland, will broadcast an ad on Fox News in Iowa during the main event.
The spot, which will be aired by the Believe Again Super PAC, will later run statewide on broadcast and cable television in Iowa, where Mr. Jindal has made repeated trips and where he has focused much of his energy as a Republican presidential candidate.
“The debate in Cleveland is all about a celebrity, but one candidate is moving up where it counts, in Iowa: Bobby Jindal,” the narrator says in the ad.
The ad cuts to Mr. Jindal saying, “If you elect somebody to D.C. that wants to be popular with the mainstream media, we are done as a country.”
Iowans Mr. Jindal has met at town-hall-style meetings are then featured in the ad. The super PAC, which is legally barred from coordinating with the campaign, is trying to send a message that the debate is merely one night of cable broadcast.
Mr. Jindal is polling low, but has been drawing large crowds.
Jeb Bush Cautions Donald Trump on Preying on Voters’ ‘Fear and Angst’
Jeb Bush suggested on Tuesday that Donald J. Trump’s strategy, as he rides to the top of polls, was to “prey” on the “fear and angst” of the American electorate, and Mr. Bush reiterated his view that many illegal border crossings by migrant parents were “an act of love.”
During an interview with the Southern Baptist Convention in Nashville, Mr. Bush was asked about Mr. Trump’s surging political fortunes before the first major Republican presidential debate on Thursday.
Mr. Trump’s “harsh tone is wrong,” Mr. Bush said. Many Americans are alienated and angry, he said, adding, “They see America moving away from them.”
But, Mr Bush continued, “I don’t think politicians should prey on that fear and angst.”
Instead, he said, “to win, and to go the right way, we have to unite rather than divide.”
Mr. Bush took a playful dig at Mr. Trump’s celebrity and credentials. He was asked by the event’s moderator, Russell Moore, whether he ever imagined being on stage with Mr. Trump when he was growing up.
“When I was growing up, we didn’t have reality TV,” Mr. Bush said.
Mr. Bush was careful to express respect for Mr. Trump, whom he called the “front-runner” in the Republican field, but he made clear that he disapproved of his heated language. “We have a different tone and a different view,” Mr. Bush said.
Mr. Bush repeated his belief that many border crossings were an “act of love” — a phrase that has raised eyebrows among some conservatives.
“This is the world we are in, when you can’t express a pretty common-sense thing,” Mr. Bush said. “The great majority of people coming here want to provide for their family.”
He added, “It’s a pretty good value.”
Jeb Bush Causes a Stir on Women’s Health Issues
The Twitter Primary: Who Makes the Top 10
As Fox News determines exactly who will make the cut for the first Republican presidential debate on Thursday, the data team at Twitter has compiled a similar list.
Looking at candidate mentions over the past 30 days — either their Twitter handle or their name written out — Twitter has come up with a top 10 list of their own for the Republican field, based on who is driving the most conversation on the social platform.
According to data provided to First Draft by Twitter, the field looks somewhat similar to the most recent Fox News national poll, with a few exceptions. Ben Carson has tumbled out of the top 10, replaced by Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina (perhaps because of his cellphone spat with Donald J. Trump). Also jumping much higher in Twitter mentions is Rick Perry, who is just below the cusp of the top 10 in national polls.
Mr. Trump remains the most mentioned candidate, with more than seven times the mentions of the next closest candidate, Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin.
Without further ado, here’s the top 10 in the Republican primary, according to Twitter mentions.
1. Donald J. Trump (2.7 million)
2. Scott Walker (354,000)
3. Jeb Bush (310,000)
4. Ted Cruz (287,000)
5. Rand Paul (98,000)
6. Rick Perry (97,000)
7. Lindsey Graham (87,000)
8. Marco Rubio (74,000)
9. Mike Huckabee (73,000)
10. Chris Christie (67,000)
2. Scott Walker (354,000)
3. Jeb Bush (310,000)
4. Ted Cruz (287,000)
5. Rand Paul (98,000)
6. Rick Perry (97,000)
7. Lindsey Graham (87,000)
8. Marco Rubio (74,000)
9. Mike Huckabee (73,000)
10. Chris Christie (67,000)
Verbatim: Chris Christie on His Religion and Birth Control
I’m a Catholic, but I’ve used birth control, and not just the rhythm method.
— Gov. Chris Christie, of New Jersey, explaining to voters in New Hampshirehow he balances the teachings of his religion with his daily life.
First Draft Focus: On to Thursday’s Debate
Christie and Kasich Appear to Be Probables in Prime-Time Debate
The latest round of national polling gives a good clue about who will make the cut for Fox News’s prime-time debate Thursday, with Gov. John Kasich, of Ohio, and Gov. Chris Christie, of New Jersey, very likely to be selected, The Upshot reports.
Donald Trump Suggests Shutting Down Government Over Planned Parenthood
Donald J. Trump suggested he supported shutting down the federal government to stop funding for Planned Parenthood in the wake of videos that show officials with the group discussing fees for tissue from aborted fetuses.
In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Monday, as the Senate voted down a measure to stop federal financing for the group, Mr. Trump called the clips “disgraceful.”
Mr. Trump cited the efforts to shut down the government in order to halt funding for the Affordable Care Act, a movement in 2013 led by Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas and a candidate to be the party’s presidential nominee, and suggested that tactic should be used again.
“I think you have to in this case also,” Mr. Trump said, noting that in the instance involving Affordable Care Act, “the Republicans decided not to stick together and they left a few people out there like Ted Cruz.”
Mr. Trump’s comments came a few days before the first sanctioned Republican presidential debate. The first-time candidate has changed his position on abortion over the years – he was once a Democrat who staunchly supported abortion rights. But he changed his position ahead of a potential presidential run in 2011, though he decided against running then.
In the interview, Mr. Trump also softened his tone about potentially running as a third-party candidate.
“I will say that I only want to run as a Republican and they’ve been treating me well the last couple of weeks,” Mr. Trump said, “but as you know, we had a lot of difficulty a couple of months before that.”
But he added, “I would say that I want to keep my options open.”
In the past, Mr. Trump also supported late-term abortions and changed his position on that as well. Many conservatives are strongly opposed to abortion at any stage of pregnancy and regardless of the circumstances.
Donald Trump’s Debate Weapon: Checks Written to His Rivals
Favors are not free in business or politics and Donald J. Trump will have his ledger ready if the insults start flying his way at Thursday’s debate.
His rivals have called him a cancer, a phenomenon, a symptom of insanity and worse since he has surged to the top of the polls in recent weeks. Happy to counterpunch, Mr. Trump will be ready to remind them how nice – and generous – he has been to them over the years.
“I think they are very disloyal people,” Mr. Trump said in an interview. “But they’re politicians. They would have been loyal if I didn’t run.”
While he acknowledges that it could be a little bit awkward taking the stage after so much tough talk, Mr. Trump said that verbal fisticuffs is all part of the business of politics. Still, he remembers every time when they came calling.
Mr. Trump said that he gave $350,000 to the Republican Governors Association at the request of Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, its former chairman who personally came to his Manhattan office and asked for a contribution.
“I was the fair-haired boy,” Mr. Trump said, recalling the days when Republicans would humbly ask him for help.
While they are at odds these days, Mr. Trump said that he once hosted a lavish fund-raiser for Jeb Bush at his apartment when the Florida Republican was running for governor. He also donated $500 to his 2002 re-election campaign.
He has sparred with Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin for the top spot in Iowa, but he also donated $10,000 to him in 2014, impressed by the fight he showed against Democrats. A few months ago Mr. Walker thanked him with an inscribed plaque.
“It’s not hanging on the wall,” Mr. Trump said, trying to remember what he did with it.
As he has mentioned before, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina once asked Mr. Trump for help getting a slot on Fox News. The billionaire magnate regifted the South Carolina senator’s cell phone number to the world after Mr. Graham called him a name.
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has raised questions about the mental state of Mr. Trump’s supporters, suggesting that they are not thinking clearly. Mr. Trump is happy to remind voters that he donated thousands of dollars to support Mr. Paul’s charitable work as an eye surgeon.
“He called me about a year ago and said, ‘I’d love to play a round of golf with you,’ ” Mr. Trump recalled. “He couldn’t have been nicer.”
As for the rest, Mr. Trump gave $2,500 to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s Huck PAC in 2012. He was wined and dined three years ago by then-Gov. Rick Perry of Texas at Jean Georges inside the Trump International Hotel & Tower overlooking Central Park. And if Senator Marco Rubio of Florida attacks him on immigration, Mr. Trump will be happy to point out the warm note Mr. Rubio wrote him in a copy of Mr. Rubio’s book, which Mr. Trump said was now on the bottom of a pile somewhere.
Mr. Trump maintains that all the gift giving is just good business, regardless of a politician’s policies, and that the donations mean little to his balance sheet.
“I’ve often been a amazed that a U.S. senator will get on an airplane and come to New York and sit with me to get a check,” Mr. Trump said. “Most of their life is fund-raising.”
Hillary Clinton’s Team Is Helped by Former Obama Adviser
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign has a string of former advisers to President Obama on staff. But her team, based in Brooklyn, has also been quietly advised in recent weeks by a prominent and well-respected veteran of Mr. Obama’s team with has deep knowledge of organizing in primary states.
Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, who was Mr. Obama’s deputy campaign manager, has been informally advising Marlon Marshall, Mrs. Clinton’s director of state campaigns, two people briefed on the discussions said. Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is primarily focused on the first four states in the Democratic nominating fight, according to two people familiar with her work, who were not authorized to speak publicly about the campaign.
Ms. O’Malley Dillon is a business partner with Mrs. Clinton’s chief digital strategist, Teddy Goff, at the consultancy firm Precision Strategies, and with another top former Obama adviser, Stephanie Cutter. But she is also a former executive director of the Democratic National Committee and was a central piece of Mr. Obama’s political infrastructure for many years. She oversaw his field organizing effort in the 2012 campaign.
Mrs. Clinton, in her second campaign, has turned to Robby Mook, who worked on her first race and is a revered figure among many political operatives. But she has also relied on people who helped Mr. Obama defeat her in the 2008 contest.
Donald Trump’s Lead Among G.O.P. Remains Strong in Fresh CBS Poll
Donald J. Trump‘s wave of popularity shows no signs of abating ahead of Thursday’s debate.
A new poll by CBS shows Mr. Trump continuing to lead the crowded field of candidates with support of 24 percent of prospective Republican primary voters. Former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin round out the top three with 13 percent and 10 percent.
“He appears to have tapped into public anger toward Washington,” the poll found, noting that Mr. Trump has drawn strong support from voters who say they are angry.
Moreover, 79 percent feel that Mr. Trump is saying what he believes rather than what voters want to hear. He is viewed by Republicans as having a strong grasp of how to handle the economy and immigration and is seen as having the best chance to win a general election, edging out Mr. Bush.
While Mr. Trump’s support appears to be broad among different kinds of Republican primary voters, the support of those who associate themselves with the Tea Party is fueling his success. The billionaire businessman is also siphoning support away from candidates such as Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, Mr. Bush and the retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who voters say are their second choices after Mr. Trump.
Despite his support, Mr. Trump continues to be polarizing, with high negative ratings and large numbers of Republicans saying they would be unhappy if he won the nomination.
The CBS survey follows polls from Fox News and WMUR, an ABC affiliate in Manchester, N.H., on Monday that showed Mr. Trump extending his support.
While it remains early in the election cycle, national polls have added significance because only candidates in the Top 10 in an average of polls will be allowed to participate in the first Republican presidential debate on Thursday.
Today in Politics: The Wait Is On for a Debate’s Final Top 10 List
Good Tuesday morning from Washington, where President Obama will celebrate his birthday by continuing to press for the nuclear deal with Iran and where pundits, politicians and pollsters are focused on Thursday’s Republican debate. But on Tuesday, we will find out exactly who will be debating.
It is decision day for the “decision desk” at Fox News.
The network, which is one of the hosts of the first sanctioned Republican presidential debate in Cleveland on Thursday, will announce sometime after 5 p.m. Tuesday which candidates will make the prime-time cut. The remaining candidates will be featured at an earlier forum on Thursday.
A few details have dribbled out about the format: 60-second answers, and 30-second rebuttals. Facebook, which is co-host of the debate, will join the questioning every 15 minutes or so.
Fox News has not said which five national polls it would use to determine who makes the stage. There was a Fox News poll released on Monday evening, but there have been a range of other surveys.
One polling outfit, at Marist College, suspended its polling because it did not want to be part of determining who made the debate stage. But the reality of the sprawling 17-candidate field has posed challenges for all networks hosting debates.
Gov. John R. Kasich of Ohio, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey andformer Gov. Rick Perry of Texas are fighting for the final spots, though Mr. Kasich has cracked the Top 10 in several recent polls.
Among the only certainties is that Donald J. Trump, who was not at the early-state forum in New Hampshire hosted by C-Span on Monday night, will be on the stage.
Maggie Haberman
Stay tuned throughout the day: Follow us on Twitter@NYTpolitics and on Facebook for First Draft updates.
What We’re Watching
Hillary Rodham Clinton will be in Denver, her first 2016 campaign event outside the early voting states, where she will participate, her team says, in “a grass-roots organizing meeting as part of her efforts to work for every vote and take nothing for granted.”
On Tuesday, President Obama’s birthday, he and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. will meet in the Oval Office with Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general.
And Jeb Bush will appear at the Southern Baptist Convention rally as part of his effort to secure the support of evangelicals.
Obama to Meet With Jewish Groups Over Iran Nuclear Deal
Mr. Obama will meet privately at the White House on Tuesday with about 20 representatives of Jewish groups, his latest bid to confront concern over the nuclear deal with Iran as he works to counter a drive in Congress to reject it.
Mr. Obama “will come prepared” to argue that the agreement, which lifts some sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program intended to prevent the development of a bomb, “isn’t just in the best interests of the United States, it’s clearly within the national security interests of our closest ally in the Middle East, Israel,” Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said.
The group, set to meet in the Cabinet Room, will include both opponents and supporters of the deal.
But before the meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who has called the agreement a “historic mistake,” will speak out against it in a webcast organized by the Jewish Federations of North America.
The president has been working feverishly to build support for the deal and is scheduled to address the subject on Wednesday at American University in Washington.
J Street, a pro-Israel group that is in favor of the accord, will announce on Tuesday a $2 million television advertising campaign in Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Philadelphia and Portland, Ore., intended to sway wavering lawmakers. The 30-second spot bills the deal as “Good for Israel, Good for America.”
— Julie Hirschfeld Davis
Our Favorites From Today’s Times
Mr. Obama unveiled a climate change plan on Monday to sharply limit emissions. The new rules, which he called imperative, include a goal to cut emissions by 32 percent by 2030, and are sure to meet fierce resistance from Republicans and the coal industry.
Reports that Mr. Biden was seriously exploring entering the 2016 racereignited discussion among Mrs. Clinton’s advisers about what his potential candidacy would mean for the contest ahead.
The comedian Amy Schumer appeared with her cousin, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, to call for increased gun-control measures in the wake of the shooting at a showing of her movie “Trainwreck” at a theater in Louisiana.
And Senate Republicans fell several votes shy of the number needed to begin debate on a measure to defund Planned Parenthood.
What We’re Reading Elsewhere
A Wall Street Journal poll finds that unhappy voters are driving the rise of anti-establishment candidates.
Mr. Walker stopped by a pizza shop in New Hampshire before Monday’s forum and was met, The Washington Post writes, with a protest stunt, several tough questions from the crowd and “a man with a scraggly beard wearing a black top hat,” a scene less welcoming than those he has encountered in Iowa.
And BloombergPolitics argues that Mr. Biden‘s deliberations about whether to run are based on “emotion-laden impulses” in the face of “stark” electoral prospects against Mrs. Clinton.
Why won’t Mr. Walker say Mr. Obama is a Christian? The Washington Post suggests he is trying to score points with the Republican base.
There’s a crisis in Rick Santorum‘s campaign, with his campaign manager and others leaving amid the candidate’s paltry fund-raising, Politico reports.
Christie Makes Rounds on TV, With Sights on Fox News Debate
If his run for president doesn’t work out, Mr. Christie is getting plenty of practice as a television personality.
As he maintains an aggressive and active campaign schedule, spending most of the past two weeks in Iowa and New Hampshire, he’s also been sure to check in on Fox News and other cable shows with increasing regularity.
In the last week alone, Mr. Christie has been on Fox News at least five times, speaking to Sean Hannity, Megyn Kelly, “Fox and Friends,” Bill O’Reillyand “America’s Newsroom.” He also stopped in at CNN to talk to Jake Tapper and CNBC to share milkshakes with John Harwood.
Often affable and extremely comfortable in front of the camera, Mr. Christie has discussed everything from Mr. Obama’s new environmental regulationsto the delicate dance in choosing between Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi.
While he may be a natural on TV, as most politicians are, the aggressive television schedule reflects not punditry ambitions, but rather Mr. Christie’s intense effort to make it onto Thursday’s debate stage. By keeping his name in the headlines and his face on television, his campaign is staying fresh in the minds of those who will be deciding the debate lineup: nationally polled voters.
As of early Tuesday morning, our colleagues at The Upshot have Mr. Christiejust squeaking in.
— Nick Corasaniti
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