Midtown Blogger/Manhattan Valley Follies: Warsaw Voice- Quarterly Growth for Poland expected to increase

The Warsaw Voice » Business » March 10, 2015

Poland's GDP growth to accelerate to 3.6pct in Q4 – central bank

March 10, 2015

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Poland's GDP growth is expected to accelerate from a Q1 2015 level of 3.2% to 3.6% in Q4, deputy head of central bank NBP Economic Institute Jacek Kotlowski said during a press conference citing the latest NBP inflation projection.

Growth is seen at 3.4% in Q2 and 3.5% in Q3 2015, Kotlowski also said.

Poland's economic growth is seen at a relatively stable rate in the projection horizon of 2015-2017, with 2015 growth forecast seen at 3.4% (versus 3.0% in the November inflation projection).

Poland's private consumption and GDP growth should remain rather unaffected by the recent Swiss franc appreciation thanks to high income buffers and relatively low share of CHF-mortgage indebted households in total household population, central bank NBP 's Economic Institute experts wrote in the March report on inflation.

Even assuming a durable 20% depreciation of the zloty against the Swiss franc versus the pre-January 15 levels, the decline in consumption would lower GDP by just 0.1%, a result of a 4% growth in the value of monthly mortgage installments, the report reads.

Poland's zloty lost ground to CHF following SNB decision to drop the 1.2 floor for the EUR/CHF rate. The exchange rate, at 3.55 prior to the decision, skyrocketed just after the announcement and stabilized around some 4.20-4.30 in the following days, but has since declined to some 3.85 at present.