INDIABig earthquake coming, warn MHA experts
Pradeep Thakur | TNN | Jan 6, 2016, 01.35 AM IST
01:13
NEW DELHI: The Union home ministry's disaster management experts have warned of a bigger catastrophe, earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.2 or greater on the Richter scale which may hit the already ruptured Himalayan region.
They say quakes with higher intensity than the one that struck Manipur on Monday are likely to rock the region in future. The tectonic shift a series of these recent earthquakes have caused in the region -- Manipur 6.7 (Jan 2016), Nepal 7.3 (May 2015) and Sikkim 6.9 (2011) -- have re-ruptured the plates that had already developed cracks during previous temblors. This has led to conditions which might trigger multiple earthquakes which may go up to 8.0 in magnitude.
READ ALSO: Eight dead, 100 injured after massive earthquake jolts northeastern India
In a post-Nepal disaster assessment, the MHA's National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) has warned of enhanced risk around the "ring of fire garlanding the entire north India especially the mountains". This was also highlighted at a recent meeting organised by the Centre in Arunachal Pradesh's capital Itanagar where policy-makers from 11 hill states had participated and resolved to develop a common building code for mountains.
Speaking to TOI, NIDM director Santosh Kumar said the interconnected plates across Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and India pose a bigger danger, and predicted a disaster of bigger magnitude that awaits hill states and parts of Bihar, UP and even Delhi which fall under the second worst seismic Zone IV classification. The North-East and other hill states fall under severe seismic Zone V.
Though some Indian scientists have reservations, but international experts, prominently Roger Bilham, the seismologist of University of Colorado and an authority on the subject, are of the opinion that "the current conditions might trigger at least four earthquakes greater than 8.0 in magnitude. And if they delay, the strain accumulated during the centuries provokes more catastrophic mega earthquakes."
Kumar said the Centre has taken measures to sensitise the governments of all the hill states to adopt a common building code that is different from the rest of India. The recent Itanagar deliberations on sustainable development of mountain states were part of Centre's earthquake risk mitigation strategy to sensitise policy-makers about "the natural time bomb".
Stress has increased in the mountains of north-east since the Nepal earthquake. Monday's 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Manipur shows the stress has not been fully released, it has only become worse. "The collision between the Himalayan plate in the north and the Indo-Burmese plate in the east and the risk created as a result is the highest at this moment," according to NIDM experts.
India is divided into four seismic zones. The most active Zone V comprises of the whole of north-east, parts of north Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Gujarat and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Delhi comes under Zone IV and is considered as one of the high-risk areas.
According to MHA's own assessment, the regulatory mechanism in Indian cities that prominently figure on the disaster map are weak and any disaster striking in any one of these populous cities would cause huge casualties.
The UN office for disaster risk reduction (UNISDR), which considers India a valuable partner and had even acknowledged the leadership of minister of state for home Kiren Rijiju and made him a disaster risk reduction champion for Asia two months ago, has emphasised India's need for compliance with building codes and the necessity for an "enhanced preparedness for effective response to earthquakes."
They say quakes with higher intensity than the one that struck Manipur on Monday are likely to rock the region in future. The tectonic shift a series of these recent earthquakes have caused in the region -- Manipur 6.7 (Jan 2016), Nepal 7.3 (May 2015) and Sikkim 6.9 (2011) -- have re-ruptured the plates that had already developed cracks during previous temblors. This has led to conditions which might trigger multiple earthquakes which may go up to 8.0 in magnitude.
READ ALSO: Eight dead, 100 injured after massive earthquake jolts northeastern India
In a post-Nepal disaster assessment, the MHA's National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) has warned of enhanced risk around the "ring of fire garlanding the entire north India especially the mountains". This was also highlighted at a recent meeting organised by the Centre in Arunachal Pradesh's capital Itanagar where policy-makers from 11 hill states had participated and resolved to develop a common building code for mountains.
Speaking to TOI, NIDM director Santosh Kumar said the interconnected plates across Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and India pose a bigger danger, and predicted a disaster of bigger magnitude that awaits hill states and parts of Bihar, UP and even Delhi which fall under the second worst seismic Zone IV classification. The North-East and other hill states fall under severe seismic Zone V.
Though some Indian scientists have reservations, but international experts, prominently Roger Bilham, the seismologist of University of Colorado and an authority on the subject, are of the opinion that "the current conditions might trigger at least four earthquakes greater than 8.0 in magnitude. And if they delay, the strain accumulated during the centuries provokes more catastrophic mega earthquakes."
Kumar said the Centre has taken measures to sensitise the governments of all the hill states to adopt a common building code that is different from the rest of India. The recent Itanagar deliberations on sustainable development of mountain states were part of Centre's earthquake risk mitigation strategy to sensitise policy-makers about "the natural time bomb".
Stress has increased in the mountains of north-east since the Nepal earthquake. Monday's 6.7 magnitude earthquake in Manipur shows the stress has not been fully released, it has only become worse. "The collision between the Himalayan plate in the north and the Indo-Burmese plate in the east and the risk created as a result is the highest at this moment," according to NIDM experts.
India is divided into four seismic zones. The most active Zone V comprises of the whole of north-east, parts of north Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Gujarat and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Delhi comes under Zone IV and is considered as one of the high-risk areas.
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Any action on rehabilitation...medical assistance and food provision....are we still sleeping inspire of warningAccording to MHA's own assessment, the regulatory mechanism in Indian cities that prominently figure on the disaster map are weak and any disaster striking in any one of these populous cities would cause huge casualties.
The UN office for disaster risk reduction (UNISDR), which considers India a valuable partner and had even acknowledged the leadership of minister of state for home Kiren Rijiju and made him a disaster risk reduction champion for Asia two months ago, has emphasised India's need for compliance with building codes and the necessity for an "enhanced preparedness for effective response to earthquakes."
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BJP: Cong boosting anti-national mindset
TNN | Jan 6, 2016, 01.27 AM IST
NEW DELHI: BJP on Tuesday lashed out at Congress for criticising the government over the Pathankot attack, saying its "shameful" statements on the Pathankot attack will boost the morale of people with "anti-national mindset," even as the ruling party parried queries on the flak it received from ally Shiv Sena.
Union minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi alleged that Congress chose to question those who are fighting to eliminate terrorism and not the actions of terrorists. "For the last few days Congress has been speaking in this voice. But it has crossed all limits today."
"At a time when it should keep in mind sentiments of people, it is questioning the martyrdom of our personnel..," he said, adding, "What is unfortunate is that Congress is trying to mislead the country and create confusion on such a sensitive issue and it in a way boosts the morale of people with anti-national mindset. What it has said is shameful and untrue. Such statements show its irresponsible behaviour on the matter of national security," while speaking at a press conference here.
Naqvi said that the whole country was speaking in one voice on the issue.
On Congress' demand that the government share the outcomes of its engagements with Pakistan, Naqvi retorted that external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj had made a statement in Parliament about this but Congress "was then busy disrupting it to protect the corruption of one family," referring to the Congress leadership.
Swaraj, he noted, had made a statement in both the Houses on December 14 during the winter session in which she spoke at length about recent developments relating to ties between India and Pakistan.
"It has answers to all the questions asked by Congress," Naqvi said, waving Swaraj's statement.
Stepping up the attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his government's handling of Pakistan affairs in the wake of Pathankot attack, Congress on Tuesday said he believes in optics and asked the government to share outcomes of its engagement with the neighbour.
BJP's ally Shiv Sena also attacked the government for its peace overtures, saying it had warned Modi not to trust Pakistan and that the time has now come for him to focus on India rather than trying to unite the world. "The attack has proven that our borders are not safe, India's internal security is in shambles and the only national work being done is giving condolences for the martyrs on social networking sites," the Sena said in a hard-hitting editorial in party mouthpiece 'Saamana'.
Naqvi, however, chose to ignore the queries about the Sena's criticism, saying, "when the operation is still on, we will not ask any question or give answers."
The operation against terrorists who attacked Pathankot air base entered its fourth day on Tuesday with security personnel engaged in search and combing operations to sanitise the installation.
Union minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi alleged that Congress chose to question those who are fighting to eliminate terrorism and not the actions of terrorists. "For the last few days Congress has been speaking in this voice. But it has crossed all limits today."
"At a time when it should keep in mind sentiments of people, it is questioning the martyrdom of our personnel..," he said, adding, "What is unfortunate is that Congress is trying to mislead the country and create confusion on such a sensitive issue and it in a way boosts the morale of people with anti-national mindset. What it has said is shameful and untrue. Such statements show its irresponsible behaviour on the matter of national security," while speaking at a press conference here.
Naqvi said that the whole country was speaking in one voice on the issue.
On Congress' demand that the government share the outcomes of its engagements with Pakistan, Naqvi retorted that external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj had made a statement in Parliament about this but Congress "was then busy disrupting it to protect the corruption of one family," referring to the Congress leadership.
Swaraj, he noted, had made a statement in both the Houses on December 14 during the winter session in which she spoke at length about recent developments relating to ties between India and Pakistan.
"It has answers to all the questions asked by Congress," Naqvi said, waving Swaraj's statement.
Stepping up the attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his government's handling of Pakistan affairs in the wake of Pathankot attack, Congress on Tuesday said he believes in optics and asked the government to share outcomes of its engagement with the neighbour.
BJP's ally Shiv Sena also attacked the government for its peace overtures, saying it had warned Modi not to trust Pakistan and that the time has now come for him to focus on India rather than trying to unite the world. "The attack has proven that our borders are not safe, India's internal security is in shambles and the only national work being done is giving condolences for the martyrs on social networking sites," the Sena said in a hard-hitting editorial in party mouthpiece 'Saamana'.
Naqvi, however, chose to ignore the queries about the Sena's criticism, saying, "when the operation is still on, we will not ask any question or give answers."
The operation against terrorists who attacked Pathankot air base entered its fourth day on Tuesday with security personnel engaged in search and combing operations to sanitise the installation.
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BJP group wants firm ‘no’ on talks, for now
Mohua Chatterjee | TNN | Jan 6, 2016, 01.21 AM IST
NEW DELHI: With the ruling BJP having indicated that the government's talks with Islamabad hinge on whether there is evidence of Pakistani state actors involvement in the Pathankot attack, a section of the party strongly feels there should be no ambiguity about the issue and the schedule for talks should be called off for now.
"The government should make it clear that the talks cannot be held now, until Pakistan takes measures against terrorists who are housed in Pakistani territory," a party source said, adding that talks and terror strikes cannot go together.
While the traditional BJP line has always been that "terror and talks cannot go together," and even now the party sources have repeated the same line, but the official party line in the context of Pathankot has been that the "right decision will be taken at the right time" as far as the talks are concerned.
This, many party members feel, has allowed a perception to build that there is still scope for the government to consider having talks, when it should be a clear "no" till Pakistan takes tangible action against terror emanating from its soil.
BJP had on Saturday indicated that if terror attacks in Pathankot are found to have been supported by the Pakistani establishment, it will adversely impact the fresh peace initiative that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken with the neighbouring country.
According to sources, the decision to go ahead with the talks now hinges on whether the Nawaz Sharif government "cooperates" with the Indian authorities in the aftermath of the attack.
"The government should make it clear that the talks cannot be held now, until Pakistan takes measures against terrorists who are housed in Pakistani territory," a party source said, adding that talks and terror strikes cannot go together.
While the traditional BJP line has always been that "terror and talks cannot go together," and even now the party sources have repeated the same line, but the official party line in the context of Pathankot has been that the "right decision will be taken at the right time" as far as the talks are concerned.
This, many party members feel, has allowed a perception to build that there is still scope for the government to consider having talks, when it should be a clear "no" till Pakistan takes tangible action against terror emanating from its soil.
BJP had on Saturday indicated that if terror attacks in Pathankot are found to have been supported by the Pakistani establishment, it will adversely impact the fresh peace initiative that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken with the neighbouring country.
According to sources, the decision to go ahead with the talks now hinges on whether the Nawaz Sharif government "cooperates" with the Indian authorities in the aftermath of the attack.
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