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Thursday, August 6, 2015

Republican Debates NY Times

Two veteran political reporters, Maggie Haberman and Nick Confessore, are watching, analyzing and chatting about the prime-time G.O.P. debate. The Times is also providing fact checks and reaction.

Donald Trump once again charged that the government of Mexico is purposely sending immigrants into the United States — he called them “the bad ones” — and charged that American leaders are taking them because they are “stupid.”
But he provided no evidence for that charge, other than to suggest that border patrol agents and others he deals with say it is happening.
In fact, Mr. Obama has recently thanked the Mexican government for its efforts in helping to keep mothers and their young children — many from Central American — from crossing into the United States across the border with Mexico.
In a meeting with Mexico’s president, Enrique Peña Nieto, earlier this year, Mr. Obama said that Mr. Pena Nieto has been “very helpful in how we can process and message that effectively both inside of the United States and in Mexico.”
Huckabee is now talking, in very deliberative policy tones, after Walker threw Trump a Reaganesque lifeline. Huckabee is getting applause for attacking the E.P.A. and suggests a fair tax instead of an income tax.

 
Photo: Brian Snyder/Reuters; Video: By FOX NEWS
John Kasich definitely has to break out in this debate – he barely got on this stage – and he seems to be using Donald Trump to do that here in an ingenious way.
The obvious tact here for the I’m-not-Trumps would be to do the do-you-not-have-decency kind of attack that Rand Paul seemed to try early on. But Mr. Kasich, when asked whether he agreed with Mr. Trump’s description of the United States government as “stupid” in its approach to blocking illegal immigrants coming in from Mexico, doesn’t take the bait. Instead, he noted instead that Trump has “struck a nerve in this country,” and moved on to talk about his own record as governor in Ohio.
This debate is being broadcast to a national audience that doesn’t know much about John Kasich or his record as governor of Ohio. It helps that this debate is taking place Ohio and the people in the arena do – and are cheering their support for the hometown governor.
Meanwhile, Trump carries himself like a guy who has nothing to lose. His body language seems to say: "You guys are lucky to have me here."
That was quite a moment - Trump declares he's given to every candidate on the stage. A bunch say, 'Not me," shaking their heads.
I hate to be reductive, but every time Rand Paul takes a shot at Trump, Trump turns it around on him.

Photo
People watch the debate during a watching party held by the New Kings Democrats at the Die Koelner Bierhalle in Brooklyn.CreditMichael Appleton for The New York Times
BROOKLYN — Perhaps the loudest groans of the night arrived as Gov. Chris Christie recalled embracing families after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. “Oh, come on!” said Teresa Toro, 48, who lives in nearby Greenpoint. “He had to go to 9/11. It’s not quite as bad as playing the Nazi card, but almost. Really? Do you have to go there?”
She looked back at the screen. “Tread lightly,” she said, as Mr. Christie wrapped up, “not that such a man can.”
He seems to be losing the audience.
Trump just seemed to make the big business case for Obamacare, I think.
I think a lot of it is that he still cannot answer questions about his family, and he really is reluctantly criticizing his brother on this issue.
I continue to be surprised by how uncertain and tentative Jeb Bush is in these settings. It feels like the uncertainty of a guy who has too much to lose. You could see where he was trying to go on ISIS, but it was an extended answer , and he seemed on the verge of losing his train of thought a couple of times.
It's worth remembering that Megyn Kelly asked him the original question about the Iraq war that he tripped over for four days months ago.
"It was a mistake, I wouldn't have gone in," Jeb tells Megyn Kelly of the Iraq war.

BROOKLYN — Discussing his views on immigration, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida earned scattered cheers. “He’s very articulate,” said Jo Anne Simon, the Democratic state assemblywoman who represents this neighborhood. “And he’s appearing to be much more comfortable tonight.”
Earlier, an attendee offered praise of a different sort: “He’s kind of cute, right?” she asked, turning to a friend.
Rand Paul has been fading the polls and a former top aide was indicted Wednesday. He really needs to reassert himself which could be why he has been on the attack.

Senator Rand Paul described himself during the debate as “the leading voice in America for not arming the allies of ISIS,” also known as the Islamic State, saying that “ISIS rides around in a billion dollars’ worth of Humvees.”
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I think that's right -- he is swinging but seems to be swinging wildly.
Rand Paul has gone on the attack more than anyone else in these debates, but he looks uncertain even when he's got a good line corked.
Christie really is standing in for Giuliani here. He remembers the hugs he gave to the families of the 9/11 terror attacks.
Rand Paul is shouting, and tossing attack lines as he goes. The Christie-Obama hug from 2012!

SIOUX CITY, Iowa — Donald J. Trump’s immigration answer reminded (at least most of) the crowd here what they like about him. “At least he doesn’t pull punches,” Mel Adema said. “He’s changing the tenor of this whole thing. If it weren’t for him, this would be boring.”
The group largely liked the tenor of Mr. Trump’s response about building a wall at the country’s southern border. As for Jeb Bush’s immigration plan? “I think he’s a little too liberal on immigration to suit me,” said Mr. Adema’s wife, Norma.
Chris Christie is now out-doingGeorge Pataki from the earlier debate with emphasis on the events and aftermath of 9/11, and living through it. This was similar to what Giuliani described in 2008. The question was about N.S.A. surveillance.
Ted Cruz just now on the immigration question took a chance to differentiate himself from Trump, saying that "someone" said our leaders are stupid, but that's wrong.
Might as well own it. Flips towards the majority opinion -- "I used to oppose gay marriage and now I support it" -- are less damaging than other kind.

 
Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times; Video: By FOX NEWS
Donald J. Trump might have been girding for tough questions from his opponents, but that hammering from a Fox News moderator on his remarks about women — and whether that makes him particularly vulnerable to Democratic charges that the Republican Party is waging a war on women — goes to another reason establishment Republicans are worried about him as a candidate.
But watch Mr. Trump’s response, and the cheers he got when he framed it as not wanting to be politically correct. (By the way, in the process, he is once again taking away what was Gov. Chris Christie’s calling card and showing why it is Mr. Christie who is standing at the edge of the stage.)
Photo
Senator Marco RubioCreditEric Thayer for The New York Times
And Walker immediately says yes, I flip-flopped. But only because I was listening to the American people.
I was about to say, I'm surprised there was no follow up from one of the moderators about Rubio's involvement in the failed immigration bill -- but the flip-flop question goes to Walker, instead.
Ha - he seems to be having the time of his life. He's the subject of most of the questions so far.
I think I just saw a shot of Trump trying to make the face people expect you to make when you're being praised by someone else.
This is a really important moment - Kasich is distinguishing himself from Bush, who is also interested in immigration but who is deeply critical of Trump's rhetoric.

Because our leaders are stupid, our politicians are stupid, and the Mexican government is much smarter, much sharper, much more cunning, and they send the bad ones over because they don’t want to pay for them, they don’t want to take care of them. Why should they when the stupid leaders of the United States will do it for them? And that’s what’s happening whether you like it or not.
— Donald Trump
Chris Wallace tries to pit Kasich against Trump. But Kasich seems to turn it well, doesn't take the bait to go negative, and acknowledges Trump's appeal.
It's a great question and one we won't have an answer to for several days. But he's been heavily booed here too.
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Donald J. Trump and Jeb Bush.CreditEric Thayer for The New York Times
Maggie, you have to wonder if it is actually Trump who gets a bounce out of this debate. Brash, direct, a little crass. But the only people who talk about politicians the way Trump does are...almost everyone who isn't in politics (or covers it for a living).

At the beginning of the debate, Senator Rand Paul took quick aim at Donald Trump, suggesting he’s “used to buying politicians.” That drew an immediate reply from Mr. Trump, who stated that he’d given money to Mr. Paul.
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Photo: Doug Mills/The New York Times; Video: By FOX NEWS
This line from Donald J. Trump — voiced to boos from the crowd — captures in a second everything that makes the Republicans nervous about him. In refusing to stay out of the race if he loses his party’s nomination, raising the possibility that he would run as a third-party candidate, Mr. Trump reminded the party just what a threat he is.
Part of that is that he does not play by the rules — he is not a conventional politician. And part of it is that if he really did run as an independent, in the event he doesn’t win the nomination, that could obviously be a big problem for the eventual nominee.
Oh, and by the way, did you catch Rand Paul, who has been enduring a series of reports saying he is fading out of the race, jump right on to Mr. Trump, criticizing him for doing it? One big rule of a debate: Do stuff early if you want to get attention and be remembered.
He also says reporters have taken him out of context. And he's okay with a "big beautiful wall" with a door along the Mexican border.
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