Eric Prisbell, USA TODAY Sports
A dizzying weekend of college basketball results has clouded the NCAA tournament picture for some teams and crystallized postseason scenarios for others that are jockeying for at-large bids or high seeds.
As we close in on less than two weeks until Selection Sunday on March 15, here are seven key bracket-related questions that help to frame the March Madness discussion:
1. Following Gonzaga's loss Saturday night, which team is likely to earn the final No. 1 seed?
It was questionable whether Gonzaga (29-2) could have earned a No. 1 seed because it has just one victory against a top 25 RPI team. But after losing at home to Brigham Young, the Bulldogs clearly look like they are destined for a No. 2 seed. Which team is best positioned to join Kentucky, Virginia and Duke on the top seed line? Right now it is Villanova, which has won six games against teams rated in the top 25 of the RPI. No team has won more. Wisconsin, Arizona and Kansas remain in the hunt if Villanova stumbles.
2. Which team is likely to earn the dreaded No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region?
Why is this the region no one should want to play in? Because sitting at the top will be No. 1 seed and unbeaten Kentucky. For competitive balance, it would make sense to place the weakest No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region, which will be played in Cleveland. But that will not necessarily be the case. The tournament selection committee prioritizes geographical proximity. That could mean that a particularly stout No. 2 seed such as Wisconsin could have to go through the Cleveland Regional — and potentially Kentucky in the Elite Eight — en route to the Final Four. It would please many fans to see a highly anticipated rematch of their 2014 Final Four classic played in the Final Four. But because of geography, it might have to be played earlier, if both advance.
3. How high can the Missouri Valley teams climb?
Northern Iowa (27-3) and Wichita State (27-3) are in the midst of outstanding seasons and could very well meet for a third time in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship. But with no other MVC team rated in the RPI's top 50, it's hard to imagine either team making a big jump up the seeding board. Northern Iowa has two top-50 victories, and one of them is Wichita State. The Shockers have two top-50 victories, and one of them is Northern Iowa. If they meet again, the most likely scenario is that the winner earns a No. 4 seed, the loser a No. 5 seed. It is hard to imagine either falling too far below that.
4. Can Texas still salvage its season?
It won't be easy. After entering the season with Final Four hopes, the Longhorns (17-12) find an uphill climb to the NCAA tournament. They squandered a chance to win Saturday at Kansas and now find themselves with a 2-11 record against top-50 RPI teams. The next two games — Monday against Baylor and Saturday against Kansas State — are must-win contests. Even with victories in those two games, Texas will need to win at least one game, and perhaps a second, in a Big 12 tournament that is expected to be as competitive as its been in more than a decade.
5. Which team has the hardest tournament résumé to assess?
Check out Tulsa's credentials. Frank Haith has done a strong job in his first season, turning an expected middle-of-the-pack American team into a tournament contender. After narrowly winning at Memphis, Tulsa has a strong 9-4 record on road and neutral courts. But Tulsa (21-7) has just two victories against top-75 teams (beating Temple twice). And its loss to Division II Southeastern Oklahoma State could still weigh on the minds of some selection committee members even though the defeat is not accounted for in the RPI. If Tulsa cannot win at SMU on March 8, it will need a victory Wednesday against Cincinnati and a couple of wins in the American tournament to feel relatively confident about a bid.
6. Which league should be most pleased after Selection Sunday?
The Big Ten could earn the most invites (eight) if Illinois and Purdue finish strong. The Big 12 could see 70% of its teams make the field. But the SEC should be applauded after earning just three bids each of the past two seasons. The league now has a realistic chance to double that number. Six SEC teams could reach the tournament — its highest total since 2008 — so long as Texas A&M or Mississippi do not collapse down the stretch. Aside from Kentucky, only Arkansas is in position to earn a top five seed. But this season represents significant progress for a league that has taken a public relations beating in recent years.
7. Did the victory at Gonzaga put BYU in the NCAA tournament?
If the at-large teams were selected today, BYU would be squarely on the bubble. The Cougars have an impressive 9-5 record in road or neutral court games. They have a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 13th nationally. But they have just one top 50 victory — Gonzaga — and three losses against teams ranked in the 140s of the RPI. Their work is not done. The Cougars likely need to reach the West Coast Conference final (against Gonzaga) to feel relatively confident about earning one of the final at-large invitations.
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