WASHINGTON — Ever since the midterm elections in early November, in the face of reports on the economy and jobs, politicians from both parties have been struggling to figure out the best way to exploit what is going on.
Do Democrats crow over good news or bash Republican congressional inaction as responsible for the challenges facing middle-class Americans? Do Republicans stick to their reliable script of blaming President Obama for a weak recovery, or do they turn to indicting him for wage stagnation? Or do they try to claim credit for themselves for any upturn since winning control of both houses of Congress?
The first jobs report of the New Year might – might – have clarified the politics of the economy, with good news so thorough that even the grumpiest Republicans were remarkably muted. But both sides will still have plenty to argue about.
“Today’s jobs report is more encouraging than many of the weak reports because we are starting to see glimmers of discouraged workers venturing back into the work force,” said Representative Kevin P. Brady, Republican of Texas and, as chairman of Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, a reliable critic of the White House.
Just last weekend, Representative Paul D. Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin and chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, pointed to 2.6 percent growth of the gross domestic product in the last three months of 2014 to say improvement was still slow and the recovery remained painfully weak. But on Friday, he was less churlish in his assessment.
“This report is welcome news,” he said in a statement, even as he noted the recovery’s fragility. “Growing our economy and creating good jobs in this country must be our top priority,”
No single month can deliver the last word, of course, but it was hard to find dark linings in Friday’s silver cloud. Payroll employment beat expectations with a seasonally adjusted rise of 257,000, bringing the average gain over the last three months to a robust 336,000. November’s job gains were revised up to a scorching 423,000 from 353,000, and December’s were re-estimated at 329,000, from 252,000.
Construction work reached the highest level since 2009. Manufacturers added 22,000 assembly line jobs.
The unemployment rate ticked up in January to 5.7 percent because Americans are finally re-entering the labor force, showing confidence that jobs are there to be had. Some 703,000 people joined the work force just last month.
Moreover, average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent in January, the strongest gain since 2008. With upward revisions in November and December, 2014 was the best year of job growth since 1999, better than any under George W. Bush.
President Obama, speaking in Indianapolis on Friday, was unabashed as he bragged on “the longest streak of private sector growth in our history.”
He continued: “Meanwhile, our deficits are shrinking. They’ve gone down about two-thirds. Our dropout rates are down. Our graduation rates are up. We’re as free of foreign oil as we’ve been in 30 years. A lot of families are saving a lot of money at the gas pump, which is putting some smiles on folks’ faces. And — you know, you’re welcome.”
Behond Mr. Obama, neither political party was terribly anxious to proclaim Mission Accomplished, because both still want an economic pressure point to push forward their differing legislative and political agendas.
“I don’t think a snapshot which just amounts to a few weeks is going to be a tiebreaker,” said Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee and an advocate for major legislation this year overhauling and simplifying the tax code. “I don’t think the public sees these stories as a real transformational judgment about the economy.”
Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House minority leader, did not want complacency to undermine Mr. Obama’s new “middle class economics,” which would raise taxes on the rich and multinational corporate profits abroad to finance aid to struggling families at home.
“The middle class are the real job creators in America,” she said. “For our economy to recover fully, we must expand the purchasing power of families and ensure that working men and women enjoy the bounty of their unprecedented productivity.”
House Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio was not going to let a strengthening recovery spoil his argument to scale back the president’s health care law, approve the Keystone XL pipeline from the oil sands of Canada to the Gulf of Mexico or rein in what he calls stifling overregulation.
“It’s always good news that more Americans are finding work,” he allowed. “That said, we know millions are still struggling and searching for a good job.”
But beneath that positioning, the politics may be shifting, at least for now. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, still smarting from its 2014 drubbing, put out a memo to Democratic House members Friday, boasting of a reversal of fortunes.
“President Obama’s approval rating is up, unemployment is down, consumer confidence is up, and gas prices are down and all indications point to continued improvement,” the memo said. “This environment, combined with a relentless focus on ‘middle class economics,’ will drive a clear contrast with the Republican Party.”
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