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Boston, already buried in snow, faces potentially crippling blizzard this weekend
IMAGE: ELISE AMENDOLA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
UPDATED 4:30 p.m. ET: The National Weather Service issued a blizzard watch from Cape Cod to the northeastern tip of Maine on Thursday afternoon, effective from Saturday evening through Sunday evening. A blizzard watch means that blizzard conditions, which are characterized by strong winds, falling and/or blowing snow and low visibility, are possible in this region within 36 hours. In issuing the watch, the NWS forecast up to 14 inches of snow for the Boston area, with heavier snows in Maine.
After an unprecedented snow blitz dumped about six feet of snow in Boston in just over 2 weeks, the city now resembles a scene from The Day After Tomorrow. Boston received nearly twice its typical annual average snowfall in just the past three weeks, and Beantown is struggling to resume normal activities despite snow-related traffic gridlock.
Therefore, it's not welcome news that yet another major storm has its sights set on Boston, but that is exactly what may play out this weekend, based on a consensus of computer model guidance and forecasts from the public and private sector.
the storm this weekend may be among the strongest of the storms to hit Boston so far this seasonthe storm this weekend may be among the strongest of the storms to hit Boston so far this season, with winds gusting more than 50 miles per hour and blizzard conditions. Fortunately, it is forecast to move faster than the lumbering snowstorms earlier this season, including a three-day event that ended on Monday. This should keep snowfall totals down to about a foot or more, rather than in blockbuster two foot-plus territory.
IMAGE: WEATHERBELL ANALYTICS
Making matters worse, the next storm will be a frigid event with dangerously low wind chills, and will help pull even more cold air southward in its wake. By Monday morning, tens of millions may be affected by below zero temperatures in an Arctic air outbreak that has not been seen since at least 2004.
If the worst-case scenario forecasts come to fruition, and Boston receives a fierce blow from the weekend storm, with a foot or more of snow and blizzard conditions, then it may turn what has been an extremely inconvenient situation to a true crisis.
Consider that the city is just now limping to a new normal after transit services were shut down earlier this week due to the last major storm, an event that claimed the job of the city's public transit agency. The state's Republican governor, Charlie Baker, as well as Boston's mayor have called the snow blitz an "unprecedented" event in the region's history, a description that is supported by weather records dating back to the late 19th century.
IMAGE: JOSH REYNOLDS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Baker has declared a state of emergency due to the excessive snowfall and appealed to neighboring states for assistance in the form of snow-removal equipment and personnel.
Boston is about to break its record for the snowiest month of February and has already broken records for the snowiest 30-day and 40-day periods, as well as having two top 10 snowstorms of all time in the same winter.
In just one week, Boston saw 40.5 inches of snow, which is close to their annual average.In just one week, Boston saw 40.5 inches of snow, which is close to their annual average.
According to the city of Boston, road crews have plowed 244,064 miles so far this season while dumping 70,051 tons of salt.
In the Boston area, about three feet of snow remains from the half-dozen major storms so far. This snow has caused roofs to collapse on homes and businesses; forced cities and towns such as Marblehead and Newburyport to resort to dumping their snow into the ocean, which used to be a common practice but is now a last resort due to pollution concerns; and snarled traffic in a metro area already notorious for its gridlock.
Boston, which spent billions to clean up its once infamously dirty harbor, has not yet taken such a step, but another snowstorm may force the city to do so.
Another foot of blowing and drifting snow could render parts of the city of Boston and nearby areas virtually inaccessible, and make getting to and from work even more difficult for area residents.
The strong winds with the storm could cause power outages in coastal areas, which could be a major threat considering the frigid conditions following this storm. On Monday, the high temperature in Boston may not exceed 10 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the National Weather Service.
Explosive storm development
The storm this weekend will result from the interaction between a strong packet of upper level energy spinning its way southward from Nunavut, Canada, and a deep trough in the jet stream located across the eastern United States. The upper level low will be extremely strong as it digs into the Mid-Atlantic, aiding the explosive development of a low pressure area at the surface off the New Jersey coast on Saturday.
IMAGE: TROPICALTIDBITS.COM
This low is forecast to rapidly intensify while moving northeast, to a position near or offshore of Cape Cod on Saturday night into Sunday, then into the Gulf of Maine on Sunday.
During the Saturday night and Sunday period, blizzard conditions, with at least three straight hours in which visibility is limited to one-quarter mile or less and winds are at least 35 miles per hour, are likely along the Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine coastlines, along with the threat of coastal flooding.
Ultimately, the hardest hit areas are likely to be Maine and the Canadian Maritimes, but computer models are projecting at least six to 12 inches of snow in Boston before the storm winds down there on Sunday, with the possibility of much more than that if the storm takes a particular track.
IMAGE: TROPICALTIDBITS.COM
The exact track and intensity of the storm will make a huge difference in determining its impacts, and while there is a general consensus that the storm will form and be intense, there are differences in forecasts of its precise track and timing that weather forecasters need to work out before Saturday.
Until Thursday morning, for example, two of the main computer models, the European model and the Canadian model, were forecasting a big snowstorm in eastern Massachusetts, while another key source of weather guidance, the American Global Forecasting System or GFS model, was showing a glancing blow.
However, just before noon on Thursday, the GFS came into better agreement with the others, suggesting that a digital drumbeat may be building for yet another major Massachusetts snowstorm.
IMAGE: WEATHERBELL ANALYTICS
There is much more to weather forecasting than just reading computer models, however. Weather pattern recognition is also important, and to that end, forecasters at the National Weather Service have said in technical discussions during the past few days that the overall weather pattern favors another major East Coast storm.
The counterclockwise flow of air around the storm will help drive frigid air into the East late in the weekend, resulting in record cold through early next week. This will ensure that any snow that falls will stick around a while, and the deep snowpack will aid in creating record cold overnight low temperatures by helping to radiate heat back into space.
By Monday morning, temperatures may be 32 degrees Fahrenheit or lower from Florida to Maine, with below zero readings reaching cities including Washington, D.C., New York, Boston, and Burlington, Vermont.
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