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Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Putin Louses Up Russian Economy- BBC

Russia's fast track to ruin

Russia
Here are the numbers that explain why the Russian economy is imploding in the face of a tumbling oil price and Western sanctions.

Oil and gas energy represents two thirds of exports of around $530bn (£339bn). Without them, Russia would have a massive deficit on its trade and financial dealings with the rest of the world - which is why Russia's central bank expects a capital outflow of well over $100bn this year and next. 

And public expenditure is almost completely supported by energy-related revenues. In their absence, the government would be increasing its indebtedness by more than 10% a year, according to IMF data. 

So the massive and unsustainable non-oil deficits in the public sector and trade explain why investors don't want to touch the rouble with even the longest barge pole. 

US Dollar v Russian Rouble

LAST UPDATED AT 16 DEC 2014, 19:40 ET*CHART SHOWS LOCAL TIMEUSD:RUB intraday chart
$1 buyschange%
68.2655+
+0.08
+
+0.12
And Western sanctions, imposed to punish Putin for his Ukraine adventure, make it all the harder for Russia's undersized non-oil economy to trade the country out of its mess. 

Desperate government?

Little wonder then that the rouble has halved this year, more-or-less in line with the tumbling oil price. 

That raises the spectre of rampant inflation - prices are already rising more than 9% a year on the backward-looking official measure. 

And there is the twin nightmare of a fully fledged slump: Russia's central bank expects the economy to contract not far off 5% next year. 

But even so the decision of Russia's central bank to raise its policy interest rate from 10.5% to 17% is eye-catching (ahem). 

It might work to stem the rouble's fall. Then again it could reinforce investors' fears that the government is increasingly desperate and powerless in the face of a market tsunami. 




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