What Happens When Developers, Scientists and Super-Computers Connect on Urban Design

(Credit: Bo Rodda/Urban Center for Computation and Data)

On Chicago’s Southeast Side lie the ramshackle remnants of a U.S. Steel plant, shuttered and abandoned in 1992. Now, plans are underway for a huge mixed-use development, called Chicago Lakeside, on that precious lakefront property. The project calls for 13,575 residential units, millions of square feet of commercial real estate, extensive parkland and a high school. It is expected to take decades to complete.

A project of this scale — it has been dubbed a “mini-city” — will obviously have significant effects on Chicago’s energy consumption and traffic patterns, among other ramifications. How can the developer try to predict those effects and design strategically?

One option is to enlist some of the most hard-core scientists in the world. The developer, McCaffery Interests, is collaborating with Argonne National Laboratory, a federal research center near Chicago. Formed in 1942 as part of the Manhattan Project, the lab has played a role in breakthroughs ranging from hurricane prediction to the discovery of einsteinium and fermium (elements 99 and 100 in the periodic table, as you surely remember from high school chemistry). The facility houses one of the world’s fastest supercomputers.

Now, Argonne scientists are taking on a challenge not usually associated with sophisticated computing: urban design. They say that for such large-scale developments, expert opinions, or even standard modeling, will no longer do. Instead, we need detailed simulations that will integrate immense amounts of data into one framework and project different scenarios for the designers to consider. Their initial prototype, called LakeSim, focuses on Chicago Lakeside.

“From our point of view it’s about using high-powered science and computing to make cities more livable and efficient,” says Argonne scientist Jonathan Ozik. “Design processes tend to be pretty ad hoc, tend to be pretty time-consuming, tend to be pretty unsatisfying … If you are creating this site that has 600 buildings, to be able to understand the impact on water, energy, economic development is really important.”

Ozik and his colleagues have software that calculates the energy footprint of each planned building, based on characteristics such as the area, direction the windows face and projected occupancy. They also simulated weather scenarios for the next 20 years. If the developer gives them a design, they can gauge the energy implications, including ranges of uncertainty. One limitation: They didn’t factor in climate change, though they may do so in the future.

The planned Chicago Lakeside (Credit: Bo Rodda/Urban Center for Computation and Data)

Another team at Argonne is focusing on transportation. These scientists made a virtual representation of the city’s transportation system, including all the roads, the number of lanes, traffic signals, and schedules of each of the train routes. They incorporated census and survey data about travel patterns as well. Roughly 30 million trips take place in the region every 24 hours, according to Vadim Sokolov, an Argonne engineer and traffic expert. The high-powered computers can take all of them into account. The scientists are also accounting for different future hypothetical scenarios — expanded use of autonomous vehicles for the “last mile,” growing popularity of bicycles. This modeling can help inform decisions about infrastructure on the site as well as in nearby affected areas. (The city government will obviously need to be involved.)

Transportation modeling has been around for decades, and energy modeling, too, is widespread. What the Argonne scientists add is the ability to model in much greater detail and at much greater speed than the typical methods. What might take days for other computers, they can complete in a matter of hours. They also integrate the simulations into one framework, in order to see the interplay among various factors.

“The output generated by the models is massive,” says Sokolov. “It’s not something you can open in your Excel spreadsheet.” The scientists then have to interpret it and visually represent it in order to communicate it in a meaningful way to the developers.

The use of this technology doesn’t guarantee any particular outcome. If they find that the development will likely increase congestion, one possible response is to expand the highways — a choice that would be anathema to many urbanists. But the models do assess not only congestion but also the energy consumption associated with transportation, so the tool could be valuable in identifying the most environmentally sound options. According to Ed Woodbury, president of McCaffery Interests, their goal is “a more sustainable city.”

Of course, other aspects of this project might rub those urbanists the wrong way, too. Computer-aided master planning doesn’t exactly sound like a concept that Jane Jacobs would warmly embrace. And the development has aroused concerns in the adjacent community on Chicago’s South Side, with some residents worried about gentrification.

But as the world continues to urbanize, such massive developments are happening, though more often outside of the U.S. Notably in China, the erection of whole cities from scratch has occurred with staggering speed. And when cities are built, choices made at the outset reverberate for decades to come, for the environment and for the people who live there. If this super-advanced modeling can facilitate more far-sighted designs, it could do a lot of good.

At this stage, the success of the prototype remains to be seen. Nothing has been built yet. “As we start to create the developments, we’ll start plugging those into that model and see what they yield back to us,” says Woodbury. But the scientists hope use of the methodology will grow, especially in developing countries.

As for all of the other dimensions of a beloved urban area: aesthetics, community, soul? “This tool won’t help with that,” says Woodbury. “You’ve got to keep your eye on those balls as well.”

Rebecca Tuhus-Dubrow is a columnist for Next City. She has also written for the New York Times, Slate and Dissent, among other publications.

TAGS: CHICAGO, TECHNOLOGY, URBAN DESIGN

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Port Authority Takes Next Step in Making the Ride to Newark Airport Easier

Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, N.J. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)

Our weekly roundup of new and newsworthy transportation projects worldwide.

Port Authority to Study Newark Airport PATHExtension
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) has hired HNTB to study and develop a cost estimate for a proposed extension of its PATH subway line from Newark Penn Station to Newark Liberty International Airport, the International Railway Journalreports.

The extension would take the line to the current transfer station on the Northeast Corridor intercity rail line, where riders would transfer to the AirTrain monorail to the airport terminals. The extension would make getting to Newark Airport easier for residents along the PATH route from midtown and lower Manhattan through Hudson and Essex counties, including Hoboken, Jersey City and Harrison. Currently, PATH users must transfer at Newark Penn Station to New Jersey Transit regional trains to reach the airport from Newark.

The three-year study, for which PANYNJ will pay HNTB $6 million, will examine technical and compliance issues and develop a precise cost estimate for the line, which the authority has said will cost roughly $1.5 billion and take five years to build. The earliest construction could begin is early 2018.

Bogota Looking at Ways to Pay for Its New Metro
By now, the Colombian capital of Bogota was supposed to be well on its way toward a planned 2016 opening of its first metro line. Instead, work has yet to begin, its cost has doubled, and it’s exploring its options for paying for it.

The International Railway Journal reports that the governments of Colombia and the city of Bogota now need to come up with $7.45 billion to finance the line’s construction, more than twice the original price tag of $3.6 billion. The total breaks down as follows: $3.6 billion for tunnels and infrastructure, $2.5 billion for stations and $1.35 billion for rolling stock.

An article on the English-language website Colombia Reports last month noted that William Camargo, director of Colombia’s Institute for Urban Development (IUD), told the Bogota newspaper El Tiempo that coming up with the nearly $7.5 billion “will require every effort of financial gymnastics to ensure its implementation and sustainability.”

Those gymnastics could include tax increases, congestion charges and “pre-planned metro user fees.” Support also exists for using public-private partnerships to pay for the 27 stations on the initial metro line.

That line will also be 4 km longer than originally planned after the city of Bogota announced that it would be extended beyond its original planned eastern terminus at Portal de las Americas to Bosa, making it 26.5 km long in total.

According to the Colombia Reports story, the Colombian government has committed to pick up 70 percent of the project’s cost, with the municipal government and fare revenues covering the rest. A news release on the IUD website announced that the Bogota city council authorized 2.4 billion Colombian pesos (just under $1 million U.S.) as an initial payment on the line’s construction on Dec. 10th.

Bogota has an extensive BRT network called TransMilenio, opened in 2000, but it is the largest South American capital city, and one of only three cities with seven million or more inhabitants worldwide, without a metro. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has called the metro “a must for Bogota.” The line was first proposed in 2009, but a municipal corruption scandal set the project back several years. Its backers now plan to start construction by the end of next year, with service set to start in 2021.

Montgomery, Prince George’s Officials Await Purple Line Decision
The “cromnibus” spending bill Congress passed over the weekend to fund the government through the fall includes money to help build the Purple Line, a light-rail line connecting Bethesda, Silver Spring, College Park and New Carrollton in the Maryland suburbs of Washington. But whether that money actually gets spent is an open question right now.

That’s because Maryland Gov.-elect Larry Hogan has not committed to following through with the state’s share of the cost.

During his successful election campaign, the Republican Hogan criticized the rail transit projects being planned for the Baltimore and Washington areas, saying the money would be better spent rebuilding roads and expanding their capacity. Since his upset victory over Democrat Anthony Brown, however, he has avoided such direct criticism.

In a Dec. 12th speech before Montgomery County business and government leaders, Hogan said nothing about the Purple Line’s fate, though Bethesda Magazine reportedmany in the audience sported buttons supporting the $2.5 billion project.

He did address the subject in a pre-speech news conference. As reported on WTOP radio, he refused to repeat his campaign criticisms but still sounded doubtful: “I think it’s great that there will be some federal money, but I’m worried about the state money,” he said.

He did, however, decline to state whether or not the state would go ahead and fund the project, saying “we haven’t even gotten to the budget yet.”

Introducing America’s Newest Rolling National Historic Landmark
And finally, a salute to a transportation facility that’s anything but a new start: The nation’s oldest continuously operating streetcar line has been designated a National Historic Landmark.

New Orleans CityBusiness reports that the St. Charles streetcar line is one of nine sites nationwide being added this year to the list of sites that represent significant contributions to the history and culture of the United States.

The addition successfully concludes a 10-year campaign to add the line to the prestigious roster. St. Charles Avenue Association President Camille Strachan called the listing a high honor, saying, “It connects neighborhoods and is an important component in our city’s history.”

The line opened in 1835 as a mule-drawn street railway connecting the then-independent cities of New Orleans and Carrollton, 13 miles apart. The line was converted to electric operation and given its current name in 1893.

The dark green 1920s Perley-Thomas streetcars that work the line, lovingly maintained by the New Orleans Regional Transit Authority, have become civic icons. Since the 1990s, they have been joined by additional streetcar lines along the Mississippi riverfront and Canal Street.

The St. Charles line becomes only the third rolling National Historic Landmark in the country and the second that still performs the function for which it was created. The East Broad Top narrow-gauge railroad in Pennsylvania, a tourist railroad since 1960, and San Francisco’s cable cars were both placed on the roster in 1964.

Know of a project that should be featured in this column? Send a Tweet to @MarketStEl with the hashtag #newstarts.

Philadelphia freelance writer Sandy Smith runs the Philly Living Blog for Noah Ostroff & Associates, a Philadelphia real estate brokerage. A veteran journalist with nearly 40 years’ experience, Smith writes extensively on transportation, development and urban issues for several media outlets, including Philadelphia magazine online.

TAGS: NEW ORLEANS, LIGHT RAIL, STREETCARS, PORT AUTHORITY, MARYLAND, BOGOTA

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