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Dec. 5, 2014, 1:57 a.m. | Kyiv Post+ — by Kyiv Post+, Oleg Sukhov
Prisoners of Russia’s war against Ukraine Ukrainian prisoners from the volunteer Donbas Battalion are guarded by members of the Kremlin-supported Donetsk People’s Republic as they walk on a street of the eastern Ukrainian city of Ilovaisk, controlled by the Kremlin-backed insurgents, on Dec. 4. The Ukrainian prisoners of war are returning to prison from their daily worked duties to repair war damages. Some 400 Ukrainians are believed to be still held hostage by the separatists as Ukraine and Russia are renewing talk against of a cease-fire in the war that has claimed more than 5,000 lives since Russia instigated the fighting in April, a month after invading and annexing Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. The economies of both nations are expected to face recession next year as the economic costs of the war continue to mount.
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LISICHANSK, Ukraine – Frustration with the Kyiv central government is getting almost palpable in some places in eastern Ukraine. Nowhere is this discontent felt more than in cities where a military campaign with no clear objectives, combined with lack of reforms and outreach by the central government, have brought on an eerie anxiety.
Vitaly Shvedov, former head of the anti-terrorist operation’s headquarters in Lisichansk, an industrial city in Luhansk Oblast, is angry with the aimlessness of the central authorities and says the war in the east should stop being called an “anti-terrorist operation” by the government.
“The anti-terrorist operation ended when the first artillery shell was fired. You can’t cure a disease if you don’t diagnose it correctly,” Shvedov said. “But now people think the war is somewhere on another planet.”
The war in Ukraine’s two eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk -- once home to nearly 15 percent of Ukraine’s population -- has been going on since March, when administrative buildings were taken over by teams of Kremlin-backed separatists. As the Russian-led forces continued to advance, Ukraine pushed back and eventually went on the offensive.
“The anti-terrorist operation ended when the first artillery shell was fired. You can’t cure a disease if you don’t diagnose it correctly,” Shvedov said. “But now people think the war is somewhere on another planet.”
The war in Ukraine’s two eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk -- once home to nearly 15 percent of Ukraine’s population -- has been going on since March, when administrative buildings were taken over by teams of Kremlin-backed separatists. As the Russian-led forces continued to advance, Ukraine pushed back and eventually went on the offensive.
A Ukrainian serviceman fires a cannon close to the destroyed Donetsk airport, which remains the epicenter of fierce fighting, in the eastern provincial capital of Donetsk on Dec. 2
That attack was halted by the end of August, when Russia moved its regular troops to the Donbas and intensified arms supplies, leading to the massacre in Illovaisk that killed hundreds of Ukrainian troops and prompted the Sept. 5 cease-fire in Minsk that Russia has violated repeatedly.
“The offensive did not stop on its own. It was stopped administratively,” Shvedov said.
Shvedov said that Poroshenko could have continued the offensive, especially if martial law and total mobilization had been introduced.
“When Lisichansk was freed (by the Ukrainian army in July), Luhansk was almost empty, there were just 200 insurgents there,” he said, arguing that separatists’ resources were meager. Instead, the provinial capital of Luhansk has now been under separatist control for months.
Shvedov says Poroshenko bowed to Western pressure to halt the offensive because America and the European Union want a lengthy conflict that would waste Russia’s resources. Shvedov believes Ukraine should go on the offensive again.
Currently there are no more than 10,000 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, and the Kremlin is unlikely to move “tens of thousands” of troops there and does not have resources for such a large-scale war, Shvedov said.
Shvedov said information that Russia had to staff some of its units in Donbas with cadets is proof of the poor state of its military.
However, Oleksandr Rozmaznin, acting head of the personnel department of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that there are 32,400 fighters in Donbas now altogether, including up to 10,000 from the Russian army, according to the estimates by the general staff. “The rest are mercenaries and members of the so-called illegal paramilitary groups,” he said at a briefing on Dec. 4.
Vladislav Seleznyov, a spokesman for the government anti-terrorist operation’s headquarters, disagreed with Shvedov.
“To fulfill military tasks, one must have necessary human and other resources,” he said. “When Russian regular troops entered Ukraine (in August), the ratio that would allow Ukraine to free occupied territories was disrupted.”
Seleznyov said it would be incorrect to talk about a Ukrainian offensive now because the country is strictly adhering to the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire agreement.
Shevdov also accused Poroshenko of compromising too eagerly with the Kremlin.
He sees this as a result of a pact that Poroshenko has with the country’s former top officials from the Party of Regions once led by ousted President Viktor Yanukovych.
“Poroshenko allows them to keep their capital and positions and they, in exchange, resolve the Russian problem,” he says.
Shvedov tried to provide some counter-balance to that policy by running in the Oct. 26 parliamentary election in the Lisichansk constituency. He lost to Serhiy Dunayev, an incumbent who belonged to the Party of Regions.
Local media had reported that Dunayev, a former mayor, in an address to the Lisichansk city council, called for “help from Russian brothers” and said that it was only temporary that the Ukrainian government controls the oblast.
“The offensive did not stop on its own. It was stopped administratively,” Shvedov said.
Shvedov said that Poroshenko could have continued the offensive, especially if martial law and total mobilization had been introduced.
“When Lisichansk was freed (by the Ukrainian army in July), Luhansk was almost empty, there were just 200 insurgents there,” he said, arguing that separatists’ resources were meager. Instead, the provinial capital of Luhansk has now been under separatist control for months.
Shvedov says Poroshenko bowed to Western pressure to halt the offensive because America and the European Union want a lengthy conflict that would waste Russia’s resources. Shvedov believes Ukraine should go on the offensive again.
Currently there are no more than 10,000 Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, and the Kremlin is unlikely to move “tens of thousands” of troops there and does not have resources for such a large-scale war, Shvedov said.
Shvedov said information that Russia had to staff some of its units in Donbas with cadets is proof of the poor state of its military.
However, Oleksandr Rozmaznin, acting head of the personnel department of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said that there are 32,400 fighters in Donbas now altogether, including up to 10,000 from the Russian army, according to the estimates by the general staff. “The rest are mercenaries and members of the so-called illegal paramilitary groups,” he said at a briefing on Dec. 4.
Vladislav Seleznyov, a spokesman for the government anti-terrorist operation’s headquarters, disagreed with Shvedov.
“To fulfill military tasks, one must have necessary human and other resources,” he said. “When Russian regular troops entered Ukraine (in August), the ratio that would allow Ukraine to free occupied territories was disrupted.”
Seleznyov said it would be incorrect to talk about a Ukrainian offensive now because the country is strictly adhering to the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire agreement.
Shevdov also accused Poroshenko of compromising too eagerly with the Kremlin.
He sees this as a result of a pact that Poroshenko has with the country’s former top officials from the Party of Regions once led by ousted President Viktor Yanukovych.
“Poroshenko allows them to keep their capital and positions and they, in exchange, resolve the Russian problem,” he says.
Shvedov tried to provide some counter-balance to that policy by running in the Oct. 26 parliamentary election in the Lisichansk constituency. He lost to Serhiy Dunayev, an incumbent who belonged to the Party of Regions.
Local media had reported that Dunayev, a former mayor, in an address to the Lisichansk city council, called for “help from Russian brothers” and said that it was only temporary that the Ukrainian government controls the oblast.
Vitaly Shvedov
Moreover, he was accused of co-organizing a convention of local mayors in the region, which was presided over by the then head of Luhansk People’s Republic Valeriy Bolotov.
Shvedov said that Dunayev’s victory in the district was allegedly fraudulent, and sent a complaint to Poroshenko about violations, only to see it forwarded to the prosecutor general’s office. No investigation has yet been opened and that’s another one of Shvedov’s frustrations.
“There will be no order without publicized punishment,” he said. The Central Elections Commission and the Prosecutor General’s Office did not respond to requests for comment.
Shvedov also said that Lisichansk’s city council had recognized the Luhansk People’s Republic but none of its members had been punished. He said infiltration of pro-Russian officials is massive in the local government, and needs to be addressed.
A possible way out of this situation is martial law and direct rule in the area, with military governors appointed instead of mayors, Shvedov argued. “War requires centralization of government,” he added.
Kyiv Post staff writer Oleg Sukhov can be reached at reaganx84@gmail.com
Shvedov said that Dunayev’s victory in the district was allegedly fraudulent, and sent a complaint to Poroshenko about violations, only to see it forwarded to the prosecutor general’s office. No investigation has yet been opened and that’s another one of Shvedov’s frustrations.
“There will be no order without publicized punishment,” he said. The Central Elections Commission and the Prosecutor General’s Office did not respond to requests for comment.
Shvedov also said that Lisichansk’s city council had recognized the Luhansk People’s Republic but none of its members had been punished. He said infiltration of pro-Russian officials is massive in the local government, and needs to be addressed.
A possible way out of this situation is martial law and direct rule in the area, with military governors appointed instead of mayors, Shvedov argued. “War requires centralization of government,” he added.
Kyiv Post staff writer Oleg Sukhov can be reached at reaganx84@gmail.com
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