Atlantic hurricane
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(1851—2012)
Tropical disturbances that reach tropical storm intensity are named from a predetermined list. Hurricanes that result in significant damage or casualties may have their names retired from the list at the request of the affected nations in order to prevent confusion should a subsequent storm be given the same name.[4] On average, in the North Atlantic basin (from 1966 to 2009) 11.3 named storms occur each season, with an average of 6.2 becoming hurricanes and 2.3 becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater).[5] The climatological peak of activity is around September 11 each season.[6]
In March 2004, Cyclone Catarina was the first hurricane-intensity tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Atlantic Ocean.
Contents
Steering factors
In the tropical latitudes, tropical storms and hurricanes generally move westward with a slight tend toward the north, under the influence of the subtropical ridge, a high pressure system that usually extends east-west across the subtropics.[7] South of the subtropical ridge, surface easterly winds (blowing from east to west) prevail. If the subtropical ridge is weakened by an upper trough, a tropical cyclone may turn poleward and then recurve,[8] or curve back toward the northeast into the main belt of the Westerlies. Poleward (north) of the subtropical ridge, westerly winds prevail and generally steer tropical cyclones that reach northern latitudes toward the east. The westerlies also steer extratropical cyclones with their cold and warm fronts from west to east.[9]
Climatology
See also: Tropical cyclogenesis
| Total and Average Number of Tropical Storms by Month (1851–2011) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Total | Average | |
| January — April | 5 | <0 .05="" td=""> | |
| May | 18 | 0.1 | |
| June | 82 | 0.5 | |
| July | 114 | 0.7 | |
| August | 362 | 2.3 | |
| September | 555 | 3.5 | |
| October | 323 | 2.0 | |
| November | 87 | 0.5 | |
| December | 16 | 0.1 | |
| Source: NOAA FAQ[10] | |||
Although most storms are found within tropical latitudes, occasionally storms will form further north and east from disturbances other than tropical waves such as cold fronts and upper-level lows. There is a strong correlation between Atlantic hurricane activity in the tropics and the presence of an El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño events increase the wind shear over the Atlantic, producing a less-favorable environment for formation and decreasing tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. Conversely, La Niña causes an increase in activity due to a decrease in wind shear.[12]
According to the Azores High hypothesis by Kam-biu Liu, an anti-phase pattern is expected to exist between the Gulf of Mexico coast and the North American Atlantic coast. During the quiescent periods (3000–1400 BC, and 1000 AD to present), a more northeasterly position of the Azores High would result in more hurricanes being steered towards the Atlantic coast. During the hyperactive period (1400 BC to 1000 AD), more hurricanes were steered towards the Gulf coast as the Azores High was shifted to a more southwesterly position near the Caribbean.[13][14] Such a displacement of the Azores High is consistent with paleoclimatic evidence that shows an abrupt onset of a drier climate in Haiti around 3200 14C years BP,[15] and a change towards more humid conditions in the Great Plains during the late-Holocene as more moisture was pumped up the Mississippi Valley through the Gulf coast. Preliminary data from the northern Atlantic coast seem to support the Azores High hypothesis. A 3000-year proxy record from a coastal lake in Cape Cod suggests that hurricane activity has increased significantly during the past 500–1000 years, just as the Gulf coast was amid a quiescent period of the last millennium.
June
Since 1851, a total of 81 tropical storms and hurricanes formed in the month of June. During this period, two of these systems developed in the deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles.[17] Since 1870, three major hurricanes have formed during June, most notably Hurricane Audrey in 1957. Audrey ranks as the earliest forming Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic basin. Audrey attained an intensity greater than that of any Atlantic tropical cyclone during June or July until Hurricanes Dennis and Emily of 2005.[18] The easternmost forming storm during June, Tropical Storm Ana in 1979, formed at 45°W.[17]
July
Formation usually occurs in the eastern Caribbean Sea around the Lesser Antilles, in the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of the northern Bahamas, and off the coast of The Carolinas and Virginia over the Gulf Stream. Storms travel westward through the Caribbean and then either move towards the north and curve near the eastern coast of the United States or stay on a north-westward track and enter the Gulf of Mexico.[19]
Since 1851, a total of 105 tropical storms have formed during the month of July.[20] Since 1870, ten of these storms reached major hurricane intensity. Only Hurricane Emily of 2005, the strongest July tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin, attained Category 5 hurricane status during July, making it the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record.[18][21] The easternmost forming storm and longest lived during the month of July, Hurricane Bertha in 2008, formed at 22.9°W and lasted 17 days.[22]
August
September
October
November
December to May
Further information: Off-season storms
Tropical cyclones have formed in all months.[18] Three tropical cyclones existed during the month of January, two of which formed during late December: the second Hurricane Alice in 1954/1955, and Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005/2006. The only hurricane to form in January was a Category 1 hurricane in the 1938 season. A subtropical storm in January also began the 1978 Atlantic hurricane season.[19] The strongest storm outside the hurricane season, Hurricane Able in 1951, attained Category 3 status on 21 May and ranks as the earliest intense hurricane on record.[29]
Extremes
See also: List of Atlantic hurricane records
- The season in which the most tropical storms formed on record was the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season (28). That season was also the one in which the most hurricanes formed on record (15).[19]
- The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had the most major hurricanes on record (7).[19] The 1950 Atlantic hurricane season was once thought to have more, but a re-analysis showed that several storms were weaker than thought, and thus the record is now held by the 2005 season.
- The least active season on record since 1944 (when the database is considered more reliable) was the 1983 Atlantic hurricane season, with one tropical storm, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane. Overall, the 1914 Atlantic hurricane season remains the least active, with only one documented storm.[19]
- The most intense hurricane (by barometric pressure) on record to form in the North Atlantic basin was Hurricane Wilma (2005) (882 mbar).[19]
- The largest hurricane (in gale diameter) on record to form in the North Atlantic was Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a gale diameter of 1,100 miles.
- The longest-lasting hurricane was the San Ciriaco's Hurricane of 1899, which lasted for 27 days and 18 hours as a tropical cyclone.[30]
- The longest-tracked hurricane was Hurricane Faith, which travelled for 6,850 miles as a tropical cyclone.[31]
- The most tornadoes spawned by a hurricane was 127 by Hurricane Ivan (2004 season).[19]
- The strongest landfalling hurricane was the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 (892 hPa).[19]
- The deadliest hurricane was the Great Hurricane of 1780 (22,000 fatalities).[32]
- The deadliest hurricane to make landfall on the continental United States was the Galveston Hurricane in 1900 which may have killed up to 12,000 people.[33]
- The most damaging hurricane (adjusted for inflation) was Hurricane Katrina of the 2005 season which caused $81.2 billion in damages (2005 USD).[34]
- The quickest forming hurricane was Hurricane Humberto in 2007. It was a minimal hurricane that formed and intensified faster than any other tropical cyclone on record before landfall. Developing on September 12, 2007, in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone rapidly strengthened and struck High Island, Texas, with winds of about 90 mph (150 km/h) early on September 13.
Trends
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See also: Atlantic hurricane reanalysis
Atlantic storms are becoming more destructive financially, since five of the ten most expensive storms in United States history have occurred since 1990. According to the World Meteorological Organization, “recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.”[38] Pielke et al. (2008) normalized mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900–2005 to 2005 values and found no remaining trend of increasing absolute damage. The 1970s and 1980s were notable because of the extremely low amounts of damage compared to other decades. The decade 1996–2005 has the second most damage among the past 11 decades, with only the decade 1926–1935 surpassing its costs. The most damaging single storm is the 1926 Miami hurricane, with $157 billion of normalized damage.[39]
Often in part because of the threat of hurricanes, many coastal regions had sparse population between major ports until the advent of automobile tourism; therefore, the most severe portions of hurricanes striking the coast may have gone unmeasured in some instances. The combined effects of ship destruction and remote landfall severely limit the number of intense hurricanes in the official record before the era of hurricane reconnaissance aircraft and satellite meteorology. Although the record shows a distinct increase in the number and strength of intense hurricanes, therefore, experts regard the early data as suspect.[40] Christopher Landsea et al. estimated an undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910. These undercounts roughly take into account the typical size of tropical cyclones, the density of shipping tracks over the Atlantic basin, and the amount of populated coastline.[41]
The number and strength of Atlantic hurricanes may undergo a 50–70 year cycle, also known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.[42] Nyberg et al. reconstructed Atlantic major hurricane activity back to the early 18th century and found five periods averaging 3–5 major hurricanes per year and lasting 40–60 years, and six other averaging 1.5–2.5 major hurricanes per year and lasting 10–20 years. These periods are associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Throughout, a decadal oscillation related to solar irradiance was responsible for enhancing/dampening the number of major hurricanes by 1–2 per year.[43]
Although more common since 1995, few above-normal hurricane seasons occurred during 1970–94.[44] Destructive hurricanes struck frequently from 1926–60, including many major New England hurricanes. Twenty-one Atlantic tropical storms formed in 1933, a record only recently exceeded in 2005, which saw 28 storms. Tropical hurricanes occurred infrequently during the seasons of 1900–25; however, many intense storms formed during 1870–99. During the 1887 season, 19 tropical storms formed, of which a record 4 occurred after November 1 and 11 strengthened into hurricanes. Few hurricanes occurred in the 1840s to 1860s; however, many struck in the early 19th century, including an 1821 storm that made a direct hit on New York City. Some historical weather experts say these storms may have been as high as Category 4 in strength.[45]
These active hurricane seasons predated satellite coverage of the Atlantic basin. Before the satellite era began in 1960, tropical storms or hurricanes went undetected unless a reconnaissance aircraft encountered one, a ship reported a voyage through the storm, or a storm hit land in a populated area.[40] The official record, therefore, could miss storms in which no ship experienced gale-force winds, recognized it as a tropical storm (as opposed to a high-latitude extra-tropical cyclone, a tropical wave, or a brief squall), returned to port, and reported the experience.
Proxy records based on paleotempestological research have revealed that major hurricane activity along the Gulf of Mexico coast varies on timescales of centuries to millennia.[13][14][46] Few major hurricanes struck the Gulf coast during 3000–1400 BC and again during the most recent millennium. These quiescent intervals were separated by a hyperactive period during 1400 BC and 1000 AD, when the Gulf coast was struck frequently by catastrophic hurricanes and their landfall probabilities increased by 3–5 times. This millennial-scale variability has been attributed to long-term shifts in the position of the Azores High,[14] which may also be linked to changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation.[47]
According to the Azores High hypothesis, an anti-phase pattern is expected to exist between the Gulf of Mexico coast and the Atlantic coast. During the quiescent periods, a more northeasterly position of the Azores High would result in more hurricanes being steered towards the Atlantic coast. During the hyperactive period, more hurricanes were steered towards the Gulf coast as the Azores High was shifted to a more southwesterly position near the Caribbean. Such a displacement of the Azores High is consistent with paleoclimatic evidence that shows an abrupt onset of a drier climate in Haiti around 3200 14C years BP,[15] and a change towards more humid conditions in the Great Plains during the late-Holocene as more moisture was pumped up the Mississippi Valley through the Gulf coast. Preliminary data from the northern Atlantic coast seem to support the Azores High hypothesis. A 3000-year proxy record from a coastal lake in Cape Cod suggests that hurricane activity increased significantly during the past 500–1000 years, just as the Gulf coast was amid a quiescent period of the last millennium.
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