Climate-change map shows how plants and animals will need new homes
CSIRO map shows where species are moving to find their optimal temperature, with some animals facing extinction
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Australian animals and plants will increasingly have to find new
homes in the coming decades due to climate change, according to research
used to create new maps of how local conditions are changing.
The Nature study, by the CSIRO and an international team of scientists, illustrates areas where species are moving to find their optimal temperature, with some animals faced with the stark scenario of dying out if they are unable to move.
Research of land and sea surface temperature from 1960 and 2009 shows these changes are already taking place, with the CSIRO’s map highlighting that shifting climate conditions are most pronounced in central and eastern Australia, covering swathes of Queensland, as well as north-west Western Australia.
Arrows on the maps show the flow of localised condition changes, with blue areas indicating areas of significant change and pink areas showing “corridors” where animals and plants may be able to move through to more favourable conditions.
“Sink” areas, in orange, show where the movement of land-based species is likely to hit a dead end, by reaching a coastline or mountain range.
Most altered conditions will take place inland, with the study warning of “considerable climate migration” from the crucial Murray Darling Basin region, which produces about a third of Australia’s food.
Marine areas are already undergoing significant change, with warming waters and a strengthening of the east Australian current allowing long-spined sea urchins, previously not found further south than NSW, to invade the east coast of Tasmania. This has had adverse effects on kelp and, as a result, rock lobsters.
Researchers looked at scenarios involving further temperature increases and found that areas affected by species migration would enlarge over the coming decades.
“We expect there will be corridors where climate migrants will move through to find their preferred environment,” research co-author Dr Elvira Poloczanska, of the CSIRO, told Guardian Australia.
“These new pathways may not be connected to suitable areas, meaning that species will have to move on further or stay and adapt quite rapidly.
“Even though the patterns of shifting climate stay the same, the areas of change are increasing in size. We are already seeing changes. Worryingly, in places like the Great Australian Bight, the survival pathways are moving offshore, which is obviously a problem for land-based animals.”
Poloczanska’s colleague, CSIRO ecologist Kristen Williams, told Guardian Australia the mapping work was a risk assessment for species Australia may lose as temperatures increase.
“Many species are already at their thermal limits, especially in interior areas,” she said. “We need to look closer at which ones are vulnerable and whether they have potential niches to move into, such as cooler gullies or other ways to shelter from the weather.
“Species have mechanisms to adapt but it’s clear we aren’t going to have everything existing where it currently is.”
Williams said the maps showed the broad temperature change influencing species distribution but other factors, such as water availability and extreme weather, would also prove crucial in survival.
“Extreme events will impact particular populations, such as extended droughts,” she said. “The climatic trend shows that animals will look for cooler habitats, which is more towards coastal areas, nearer the cooling influence of the ocean.'
“But if you’re a land-based species, there’s only so far you can go. That’s where we may have to make some hard decisions and intervene, to get these animals over the barriers.”
Last year, the CSIRO released a study which looked at how to relocate animals displaced due to climate change.
Species such as the koala and the mountain pygmy possum are considered particularly vulnerable to a changing climate, with scientists warning that Australia’s average temperature could rise by 4C by 2100 unless urgent action is taken to reduce carbon emissions.
The Nature study, by the CSIRO and an international team of scientists, illustrates areas where species are moving to find their optimal temperature, with some animals faced with the stark scenario of dying out if they are unable to move.
Research of land and sea surface temperature from 1960 and 2009 shows these changes are already taking place, with the CSIRO’s map highlighting that shifting climate conditions are most pronounced in central and eastern Australia, covering swathes of Queensland, as well as north-west Western Australia.
Arrows on the maps show the flow of localised condition changes, with blue areas indicating areas of significant change and pink areas showing “corridors” where animals and plants may be able to move through to more favourable conditions.
“Sink” areas, in orange, show where the movement of land-based species is likely to hit a dead end, by reaching a coastline or mountain range.
Most altered conditions will take place inland, with the study warning of “considerable climate migration” from the crucial Murray Darling Basin region, which produces about a third of Australia’s food.
Marine areas are already undergoing significant change, with warming waters and a strengthening of the east Australian current allowing long-spined sea urchins, previously not found further south than NSW, to invade the east coast of Tasmania. This has had adverse effects on kelp and, as a result, rock lobsters.
Researchers looked at scenarios involving further temperature increases and found that areas affected by species migration would enlarge over the coming decades.
“We expect there will be corridors where climate migrants will move through to find their preferred environment,” research co-author Dr Elvira Poloczanska, of the CSIRO, told Guardian Australia.
“These new pathways may not be connected to suitable areas, meaning that species will have to move on further or stay and adapt quite rapidly.
“Even though the patterns of shifting climate stay the same, the areas of change are increasing in size. We are already seeing changes. Worryingly, in places like the Great Australian Bight, the survival pathways are moving offshore, which is obviously a problem for land-based animals.”
Poloczanska’s colleague, CSIRO ecologist Kristen Williams, told Guardian Australia the mapping work was a risk assessment for species Australia may lose as temperatures increase.
“Many species are already at their thermal limits, especially in interior areas,” she said. “We need to look closer at which ones are vulnerable and whether they have potential niches to move into, such as cooler gullies or other ways to shelter from the weather.
“Species have mechanisms to adapt but it’s clear we aren’t going to have everything existing where it currently is.”
Williams said the maps showed the broad temperature change influencing species distribution but other factors, such as water availability and extreme weather, would also prove crucial in survival.
“Extreme events will impact particular populations, such as extended droughts,” she said. “The climatic trend shows that animals will look for cooler habitats, which is more towards coastal areas, nearer the cooling influence of the ocean.'
“But if you’re a land-based species, there’s only so far you can go. That’s where we may have to make some hard decisions and intervene, to get these animals over the barriers.”
Last year, the CSIRO released a study which looked at how to relocate animals displaced due to climate change.
Species such as the koala and the mountain pygmy possum are considered particularly vulnerable to a changing climate, with scientists warning that Australia’s average temperature could rise by 4C by 2100 unless urgent action is taken to reduce carbon emissions.
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